Fenerbahçe's 11-minute burst cannot mask a familiar collapse

Fenerbahçe scored twice inside eleven minutes at the Şükrü Saracoğlu and still could not win. Oğuz Aydın's 25-yard strike in the fourth minute and Mason Greenwood's seventh goal of the season in the 11th gave the home side a lead that looked, briefly, like the start of a Champions League campaign finally finding its feet. By the 90th minute, Pavel Kačor — a 20-year-old substitute — had volleyed Emmanuel Ayaosi's cross past Ederson to complete a Slavia Prague comeback from two goals down. The match finished 2-2. Fenerbahçe have two points from three league-phase games. Slavia have one.

The manner of the draw matters more than the point. Lukáš Provod pulled one back in the 15th minute after a poor Guendouzi pass, and from that moment the game tilted. Slavia finished with 51 per cent possession, 1.48 expected goals to Fenerbahçe's 1.04, two big chances to one, and five corners to three. Fenerbahçe had 15 shots, the same as their visitors, but only four on target. The raw shot count suggests parity; the chance quality suggests Slavia were the more dangerous side for the majority of the night. Reports describing the visitors as the happier of the two are consistent with that reading.

The broader picture is starker. Fenerbahçe's expected goals in this match were 1.04, against an average of 2.6 across their earlier 2026/27 matches in all competitions. Their open-play expected goals were 0.9, against an average of 2.03. They scored two goals from 1.04 expected — a goals-minus-expected-goals figure of 0.96, against an average of 0.0 earlier in the season. In other words, the finishing in the first 11 minutes was exceptional; the chance creation underneath it was not.

The defensive side of the ledger is equally awkward. Fenerbahçe won 61 duels here, against an average of 34.8 across their earlier 2026/27 matches. They were physically dominant for long stretches and still conceded twice, including in the 90th minute. Corners tell a similar story of a game that slipped: three here, against an average of six earlier in the season.

This is not an isolated result. Before that, their domestic form had been strong: an 8-0 win over Eyüpspor, a 3-0 win at Rizespor, a 3-0 win over Alanyaspor, a 0-0 draw at Gaziantep. In the Süper Lig they have five wins, one draw and two defeats from eight games under İsmail Kartal, a return of 2.0 points per game. In 2023/24, Kartal's side took 2.61 points per game across 38 matches, with 31 wins, six draws and one defeat. The comparison is not like-for-like — different squads, different seasons, different competitions — but it is the benchmark the club's recent history provides, and the current side is short of it.

The squad has been rebuilt heavily since that 2023/24 campaign. N'Golo Kanté, Mattéo Guendouzi, Kojo Peprah Oppong, Nathan Aké, Romelu Lukaku and Vedat Muriqi have arrived; Sofyan Amrabat, Dominik Livaković, Talisca, Sidiki Cherif, Youssef En-Nesyri and Fred have departed. Whether that turnover has produced a better or worse balance is the question the coming weeks will answer. On this evidence, the attacking output is more reliant on individual moments than the earlier-season averages suggest, and the game management — protecting a two-goal lead at home against a winless opponent — remains unresolved.

The immediate concern is the Istanbul derby against Galatasaray, currently scheduled for Monday 26 October but reportedly under review for a possible move to Sunday 25 October. A shorter turnaround would test recovery and preparation, though the match has not been rescheduled. Fenerbahçe's Champions League position is not yet terminal — two points from three games leaves room, but not much — and the manner of this draw, coming days after the Villa defeat, raises questions about whether the side can manage the moments that decide tight matches. The 11-minute burst was real. So was the 90th-minute collapse. The gap between them is the story of Fenerbahçe's season so far.