Başakşehir's five-goal show masks a points return that still lags

Başakşehir's 5-2 win over Samsunspor on 1 November was, by the raw numbers, the most complete attacking performance of their Super Lig season. It was also, by the only measure that decides where a club finishes, worth exactly three points — the same as any scrappier win, and not enough on its own to close the gap between this side and the one that once set the standard at the club.

Eldor Shomurodov put Başakşehir ahead on 10 minutes, Tanguy Coulibaly levelled for Samsunspor on 22, and Andreas Skov Olsen restored the lead three minutes later. Emin Bayram made it 3-1 on 41 minutes, Ousseynou Ba added a fourth on 75, Elayis Tavşan pulled one back for the visitors on 84, and Abbosbek Fayzullayev completed the scoring in the first minute of stoppage time.

The volume behind that scoreline was striking. Başakşehir had 60% possession, 24 shots and 10 on target, with eight corners; Samsunspor managed 40% of the ball, nine shots, four on target and two corners. Expected goals read 4.22 to 1.04, and big chances 9-1. This was not a smash-and-grab. It was a side creating at a rate it had not managed earlier in the campaign.

Set those figures against Başakşehir's earlier 2026/27 matches and the jump is hard to miss. They averaged 11 shots across those games and 47.8% possession; here they posted 24 shots and 60%. They averaged 3.4 corners; here they won eight. They averaged 32.8 duels won; here they won 51. Their goals minus expected goals was 0.78 in this match, against an average of 0.0 beforehand — meaning that for once they converted roughly in line with, indeed slightly above, the quality of the chances they made.

That is the encouraging part. The discouraging part is the league table. The win moved Başakşehir to 4-2-4, 14 points from 10 games, a rate of 1.4 points per game under Nuri Şahin. The comparison that hangs over the club is the 2016/17 Süper Lig season, when Başakşehir recorded 21 wins, 10 draws and three defeats across 34 games — 2.15 points per game. That is a different squad, a different decade and a different competition, but it is the club's own recent history, and the distance between the two numbers is the story of this season so far.

Squad turnover offers part of the explanation without excusing everything. Since the summer, Başakşehir have added Emin Bayram and Eldor Shomurodov, both of whom scored here, while Halit Acun has departed. That is a modest refresh rather than a rebuild, and it does not by itself account for a points-per-game shortfall of 0.75.

Three of their five goals came after the break, and the big-chance count of 9-1 suggests the game was never as close as the 84th-minute concession made it look. Samsunspor, for their part, arrived on five straight defeats and left with a record of 1-1-8 and four points, so the quality of the opposition has to be weighed alongside the scale of the performance.

The question that follows is whether this attacking output can be sustained against stronger sides. Başakşehir's recent form before this match included a 5-0 loss at Amed, a 0-0 draw at Konyaspor and a 2-0 defeat at Beşiktaş — results that suggest the floor is still low even as the ceiling looks high. One match of 24 shots does not establish a trend; it establishes a possibility.

What is clear is that Başakşehir can generate volume. What is not yet clear is whether that volume can be converted into the kind of points return that once made the club a title contender. Until it is, five-goal wins will remain impressive afternoons rather than evidence of a season turning.