Bayern and Arsenal Trade Blows in a First Half That Refused to Settle

Bayern München and Arsenal go into the half-time break level at 1-1 at the Allianz Arena, and the scoreline flatters the hosts in terms of control but not in terms of cutting edge. Alphonso Davies has been Bayern's most dangerous outlet, leading all individual numbers with a goal and 0.56 expected goals. His strike is the reason Bayern are level despite Arsenal dictating the tempo.

Bayern's 4-2-3-1 has been content to sit deeper and spring forward, while Arsenal's matching 4-2-3-1 has pushed higher and circulated the ball with more patience. The possession split — 44% to 56% in Arsenal's favour — tells the story of who has had the ball, but the expected goals map tells a different one. Bayern's 0.82 xG edges Arsenal's 0.58, and the open-play split is even more pronounced: 0.82 to 0.19 in Bayern's favour. Arsenal's threat has come almost entirely from set plays, where they have generated 0.39 xG to Bayern's zero.

Arsenal have had six shots to Bayern's five, but only one on target to Bayern's two. The visitors have won 30 duels to Bayern's 15, and they have drawn nine fouls from the hosts while committing just one themselves. That disparity has already produced two yellow cards for Arsenal — a consequence of their aggressive pressing and tactical fouling — but it has also given them the set-piece platform from which they have generated their best chances.

Bayern's foul count of nine is a problem. It has handed Arsenal repeated dead-ball opportunities, and the 0.39 xG Arsenal have generated from set plays is more than double their open-play output. Harry Kane has been quiet by his standards, registering just 0.08 xG, while Serge Gnabry has been marginally more involved with 0.16 xG. Martin Ødegaard has been kept to 0.02 xG, and Ismael Saibari the same. The individual numbers suggest Bayern's attacking threat has been concentrated in Davies rather than distributed across the front line.

Bayern have had 12 touches in the box to Arsenal's 12, and both sides have created two big chances to one. The game is finely balanced, but the underlying numbers suggest Bayern have been more efficient with their opportunities while Arsenal have had more of the ball without finding the same quality of opening. The 106 passes Arsenal have completed in Bayern's half — nearly double Bayern's 57 — shows where the territorial advantage has sat.

Bayern's 85% pass accuracy from 165 accurate passes is marginally better than Arsenal's 84% from 207, but the volume tells the story of Arsenal's control. The question for the second half is whether Bayern can continue to absorb pressure and strike on the break, or whether Arsenal's set-piece threat and territorial dominance will eventually tell. Davies has been the difference so far. Bayern need him to stay involved.