Stuttgart's Dead-Ball Double Leaves Leverkusen Chasing the Half

VfB Stuttgart lead Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 at half-time at the BayArena, and the shape of the scoreline is not the shape of the ball. Leverkusen have had 58% of possession and 22 touches in the Stuttgart box to the visitors' 10. Stuttgart have four big chances to Leverkusen's none, and 5 shots on target to Leverkusen's 3. The half has been played largely in one direction and decided almost entirely in the other.

Ermedin Demirović opened it on 14 minutes, finishing left-footed from open play. Eight minutes later Jamie Leweling made it two, also left-footed, from a corner. Leweling's goal carried an expected-goals value of 0.89 — the single highest-quality chance of the half by a distance. Stuttgart's set-piece xG for the opening period reads 1.13 against Leverkusen's 0.41. Two of the three goals in this match have come from dead balls, and that is the story of the first 45 minutes.

Patrik Schick pulled one back on 28 minutes, a header from a corner, with Aleix García providing the assist. Schick's goal was worth 0.19 xG — a fraction of Leweling's chance, and a reminder that Leverkusen's route back into this game has been the same one Stuttgart used to build the lead.

Both sides have had 9 shots. The difference sits underneath that symmetry. Stuttgart's total xG for the half is 2.00; Leverkusen's is 1.01. Stuttgart's open-play xG of 0.87 edges Leverkusen's 0.60, but the set-piece column is where the game has been won and lost: 1.13 to 0.41. Leverkusen have passed more accurately — 167 completed at 76% to Stuttgart's 118 at 72% — and played 77 passes in the opposition half to Stuttgart's 47. None of it has translated into the chances that decide matches.

Leverkusen have won 30 duels to Stuttgart's 22 and taken 5 corners to Stuttgart's 2, yet trail. They have also collected 3 yellow cards to Stuttgart's 2, with 4 fouls to Stuttgart's 8 — a card count that will shape how aggressively they can press the second half.

Both teams are set up in 4-2-3-1. Leverkusen's territorial control has not produced a single big chance; Stuttgart have generated four. Schick has his goal from 0.46 xG across the half, Demirović his from 0.21, and Leweling's 1.18 xG return is the standout number on the board. Deniz Undav has registered 0.06 xG without a goal; Chris Führich has yet to score.

Leverkusen need to convert possession into clear opportunities rather than half-chances, and they need to do it without conceding another set piece. Stuttgart need only to keep the game in the spaces where it has already been decided.