Fact checkPoliticsPublished October 22, 2026

“The United States national debt exceeds $40 trillion and the inflation rate is 3.7%.” — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Our verdict: Partly True.

“The United States national debt exceeds $40 trillion and the inflation rate is 3.7%.” — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Our verdict: Partly True.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)News reportOctober 22, 2026

The claim was attributed to Sen. Rand Paul in a TradingView report dated 22 October 2026.

Our verdict

Partly True

The claim is partly true: Treasury records show that the national debt had exceeded $40 trillion by 21 October 2026. We could not confirm the stated 3.7% inflation rate for 22 October.

What we found

The US Treasury’s Debt to the Penny dataset supports the debt figure: its records show total public debt outstanding, and the latest date provided here is 21 October 2026. Rand Paul’s Senate office had also stated on 22 September that the gross national debt exceeded $40 trillion.

The inflation figure is not confirmed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 3.4% annual inflation for August, while its September figure cited here is for the South region, not the whole country. Neither establishes the national inflation rate on 22 October.

The evidence

1 contradict and 1 support the claim, of 4 sources.

Contradict 1Support 1Background 2
When each source was published
bls.gov · Sept 2026 · contradicts the claimpaul.senate.gov · Sept 2026 · backgroundbls.gov · Oct 2026 · backgroundfiscaldata.treasury.gov · Oct 2026 · supports the claimSept 2026Oct 2026
  • Supports the claim

    The Treasury’s Debt to the Penny dataset records total public debt outstanding through 21 October 2026, supporting the claim that the debt exceeded $40 trillion. [1]

  • Background

    Paul’s Senate office stated on 22 September 2026 that gross national debt exceeded $40 trillion. [2]

  • Contradicts the claim

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported annual CPI inflation of 3.4% for August 2026. This does not confirm the claimed 3.7% rate for 22 October. [3]

  • Background

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 3.4% annual CPI inflation for the South region in September 2026. This regional figure does not establish the national rate on 22 October. [4]

What we could not confirm

  • We could not confirm that Paul made the statement on 22 October 2026.
  • We could not confirm the US national inflation rate on 22 October 2026 or verify the claimed 3.7% figure.

How we checked

We checked US Treasury debt records, statements from Paul’s Senate office and Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI releases. The available inflation figures do not provide a national rate for the date of the claim. We reviewed 5 relevant sources.

Sources

  1. [1]fiscaldata.treasury.gov · Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data · October 21, 2026
  2. [2]paul.senate.gov · Dr. Rand Paul Introduces Six Penny Plan to Balance the Federal Budget in Five Years · September 22, 2026
  3. [3]bls.gov · Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M08 Results · September 11, 2026
  4. [4]bls.gov · Consumer Price Index, South Region — September 2026 : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · October 14, 2026
  5. [5]Original statement · News report · October 22, 2026

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