Mike Johnson: The United States violent crime rate in 2026 is the lowest it has been in the past 126 years. Our verdict: Unverified.

What we found

The evidence

• Background

  Mike Johnson's official website reports that he said the United States has the lowest violent crime rate in 126 years. [1]

• Background

  The FBI reported that the 2025 violent crime rate was 327.6 per 100,000, the largest single-year decline since 1936, and that the murder rate was the lowest since 1955-56. This is 2025 data, not 2026. [2]

• Background

  The White House claimed in July 2026 that homicides in the first half of 2026 were down 18% year-over-year and on pace for the lowest level in at least 126 years. This is a mid-year homicide projection, not the full-year violent crime rate. [3]

• Background

  The FBI reported that the largest year-to-year decline in violent crime rates since 1936 occurred between 2024 and 2025. This covers 2025, not 2026. [4]

• Background

  The White House claimed in January 2026 that the murder rate in major cities reached a 125-year low in 2025. This is a murder rate for 2025, not the overall violent crime rate for 2026. [5]

What we could not confirm

• The final full-year 2026 violent crime rate from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting programme or the Bureau of Justice Statistics has not been published. It is normally released late the following year.
• Available 2026 data are limited to mid-year projections, rolling 12-month trends and homicide-only figures, not the complete 2026 violent crime rate.
• A full historical comparison of violent crime rates back to 1900 is not documented in the sources we found.

How we checked

We looked at the FBI's most recent full-year violent crime statistics, White House statements about crime in 2025 and 2026, and the official record of Mike Johnson's remarks. We could not find a published full-year violent crime rate for 2026. We reviewed 5 relevant sources.