Ken Griffin: Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have increased inflation and disrupted global supply chains. Our verdict: True.
Ken Griffin, the founder of the hedge fund Citadel, made the claim in a Business Insider report published on 21 October 2026, in which he called Trump's tariffs on US allies 'a disaster'.
Our verdict
True
Ken Griffin's claim is accurate. Independent research from the Federal Reserve, the OECD and academic economists shows that the Trump administration's tariffs pushed prices up and disrupted global supply chains.
What we found
We found strong support for the claim. Ken Griffin said it himself in a Business Insider report on 21 October 2026, and the wider evidence backs him up. Federal Reserve research on the 2018-2019 tariffs found they were unprecedented in scale and that global supply chains helped spread their effects through manufacturing. Academic work from Princeton and the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the 2018 tariffs forced firms to renegotiate with suppliers or find new ones, and that the US-China trade war raised production costs and disturbed supply chains. The United States International Trade Commission documented clear shifts in trade patterns after the Section 232 and 301 tariffs of 2018, and reporting on the OECD and the Federal Reserve Chair attributes both inflation and supply chain disruption to Trump's trade policies. A group called the Coalition for a Prosperous America argues the inflation effect was small, but it is an advocacy organisation with a protectionist stance, and its view does not outweigh the central bank and international research.
The evidence
4 of 6 sources support the claim; none contradict it.
- Background
Ken Griffin directly stated that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have fuelled inflation and disrupted global supply chains. [1]
- Supports the claim
Federal Reserve research on the 2018-2019 tariffs found they were unprecedented in scale and that global supply chains played a role in transmitting their effects through the manufacturing sector. [2]
- Supports the claim
Academic research found that the 2018 Trump tariffs disrupted global supply chains, forcing firms to renegotiate with suppliers or seek new ones. [3]
- Supports the claim
The United States International Trade Commission documented that the Section 232 and 301 tariffs of 2018 led to observable shifts in trade patterns for various products. [4]
- Supports the claim
Reporting on the OECD and the Federal Reserve Chair attributes inflationary pressure and supply chain disruption to Trump's trade policies. [5]
- Background
The Coalition for a Prosperous America argues that tariffs had a minimal inflation impact, citing a USITC study showing steel tariffs raised domestic steel prices by 0.7% and aluminium by 0.9% from 2018 to 2021, and claims tariffs reduce supply chain disruption risks. [6]
What we could not confirm
- The exact size of the inflation increase caused by the tariffs is debated. Some studies show a minimal aggregate impact, while others attribute meaningful upward pressure.
- The extent of supply chain disruption across all sectors, as opposed to specific industries, is not uniformly quantified.
- The Federal Reserve research focuses on manufacturing sector effects, not aggregate inflation or economy-wide supply chain disruption.
How we checked
We looked at the original Business Insider report, research papers from the Federal Reserve, Princeton University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, documentation from the United States International Trade Commission and the Congressional Research Service, and reporting on statements by the OECD and the Federal Reserve Chair. We also considered a counterargument from an advocacy group with a protectionist stance. We reviewed 11 relevant sources.
Sources
- [1]www.businessinsider.com · Ken Griffin calls Trump’s tariffs on US allies 'a disaster' and predicts it will hurt Republicans in the midterms · October 21, 2026
- [2]federalreserve.gov · Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector · January 1, 2019
- [3]princeton.edu · When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains · February 1, 2023
- [4]usitc.gov · Special Topic: Section 232 and 301 Trade Actions in 2018 · January 1, 2019
- [5]idahostatejournal.com · Opinion: Trump’s tariff mania is insane and unprecedented · June 4, 2025
- [6]prosperousamerica.org · Tariffs and Trade Have Little Impact on Inflation | Coalition For A Prosperous America
Have evidence we missed?
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