“Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are the primary cause of rising global diesel prices.” — Donald Trump. Our verdict: False.
Donald Trump made the claim on 18 October 2026, in remarks reported by the Kyiv Independent in which he defended his policies towards Russia and criticised Volodymyr Zelensky.
Our verdict
False
Donald Trump's claim that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are the primary cause of rising global diesel prices is false. Experts point to the Iran conflict and damage to Middle Eastern refineries as the main drivers, while Ukrainian strikes are only one of several contributing factors.
What we found
It is true that Ukrainian forces have carried out sustained drone strikes on Russian refineries, and that diesel prices have risen. It is also true that Donald Trump made this claim. But the evidence does not show that these strikes are the main cause of higher global diesel prices. An analysis from Michigan State University's news service identifies the Iran conflict and damage to refineries in the Middle East as the primary drivers. Other sources, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, list the Ukrainian strikes as just one factor among many behind falling refinery capacity. No source we found measures how much of the price rise is down to the Ukrainian strikes, and none supports the idea that they are the leading cause.
The evidence
1 contradict and 2 support the claim, of 6 sources.
- Background
Trump publicly said Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are hurting world diesel markets, including in the United States. [1]
- Contradicts the claim
Economic experts identify the Iran conflict and damage to Middle Eastern refineries as the primary drivers of current diesel price increases. [2]
- Supports the claim
Ukrainian forces have run a sustained campaign of drone strikes on Russian refineries, sharply reducing Russian diesel production. [3]
- Background
Trump said Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil sites increase global oil prices. [4]
- Background
The political backdrop includes rising diesel prices and Trump's efforts to ease them by importing diesel from Russia. [5]
- Supports the claim
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries are described as one of several factors contributing to global refinery capacity declines, not the main one. [6]
What we could not confirm
- No source quantifies how much of the rise in global diesel prices is due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, so the exact size of their impact is unknown.
- Our check is limited to the sources listed here and to the 2026 timeframe; later or unpublished sources and regional variations were not examined.
How we checked
We looked at the original report of Trump's remarks, expert analysis on the causes of diesel price rises, and reporting on Ukrainian strikes and Russian refining capacity. We compared what each source said about the main drivers of global diesel prices. We reviewed 7 relevant sources.
Sources
- [1]kyivindependent.com · 'I want this war end' — Trump defends pro-Russian policies in scathing diatribe against Zelensky · October 18, 2026
- [2]msutoday.msu.edu · Ask the expert: Why gas prices have risen and what’s ahead · October 5, 2026
- [3]iea.org · Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks - IEA · September 17, 2026
- [4]nbcnews.com · Trump says Ukraine resuming strikes on Russian oil sites is a ‘disgrace’ · October 16, 2026
- [5]npr.org · Trump says U.S. to get diesel from Russia, relaxing pressure on Moscow to ease prices before midterms · October 9, 2026
- [6]dallasfed.org · Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil
- [7]Photo: Daniel Torok / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain
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