Andy Burnham: The United Kingdom has lost more than it has gained in the ten years since Brexit. Our verdict: Mostly True.
Andy Burnham made the claim in an Independent article published on 1 November 2026, about the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum.
Our verdict
Mostly True
Andy Burnham said the UK has lost more than it has gained in the ten years since Brexit. The economic evidence we found supports that direction: independent analyses say the economy is 5–10% smaller than it would have been without Brexit.
What we found
We found that Andy Burnham did make this claim, in an Independent article in November 2026. On the substance, two independent analyses point the same way. Research cited by the Greater London Authority found the UK economy is 5–10% smaller than it would have been without Brexit. A Centre for European Reform report on ten years since the referendum concluded that Brexit has caused a persistent drag on UK growth and productivity. Both describe losses, not gains, on the measures economists can count. We therefore rate the claim mostly true. The economic side is well supported, but the claim is broad, and not every part of it can be measured.
The evidence
2 of 3 sources support the claim; none contradict it.
- Background
Andy Burnham stated that the UK has lost more than it has gained in the ten years since Brexit. [1]
- Supports the claim
Multiple studies cited by the Greater London Authority indicate the UK economy is 5–10% smaller than it would have been without Brexit. [2]
- Supports the claim
An independent Centre for European Reform analysis concludes that Brexit has caused a persistent drag on UK growth and productivity. [3]
What we could not confirm
- The claim covers more than the economy. Gains and losses in areas such as regulatory autonomy, diplomatic relations and sovereignty are not measured in the evidence we found, so we could not check those parts.
- The ten-year timeframe is approximate. The referendum was in June 2016, while the statement was made in November 2026, about ten and a half years later.
- The evidence looks at the net economic impact overall. It does not weigh every sectoral gain, such as specific trade agreements, against every loss.
How we checked
We checked the original Independent article to confirm what was said and when. We then looked at independent economic analyses of Brexit's impact, including research cited by the Greater London Authority and a Centre for European Reform report on the ten years since the referendum. We reviewed 3 relevant sources.
Sources
- [1]www.independent.co.uk · Andy Burnham accuses Tories of ‘burning bridges’ with EU over Brexit · November 1, 2026
- [2]london.gov.uk · January 1, 2026
- [3]cer.eu · Ten years after the Brexit referendum: The past, present and future of the UK’s relationship with the EU · June 22, 2026
Have evidence we missed?
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