The ₦9 Trillion Question: Makinde's NLNG Claim and the Arithmetic That Tests It

Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde alleged on Friday that the Federal Government is withholding ₦250 billion in Nigeria LNG dividends for each state until after the 2027 general elections, saying the delay is affecting development planning in Oyo State. He spoke at the 2027 Budget Stakeholders' Consultative Engagement at the University of Ibadan.

The Presidency responded on Sunday, October 18, 2026, through Special Adviser on Information and Strategy Bayo Onanuga, who dismissed the claim as false and inconsistent with NLNG's financial records.

The rebuttal rests on arithmetic. Onanuga said ₦250 billion to each of the 36 states would total ₦9 trillion, excluding the Federal Government, the Federal Capital Territory and the 774 local councils. Under the Federation Account Allocation Committee formula, states receive 26.72% of distributable Federation Account revenue. For the states' share to reach ₦9 trillion, the Presidency argued, NLNG would have had to make a one-time transfer of more than ₦33.68 trillion.

Onanuga said NLNG has paid approximately $21.5 billion in dividends to the Federation over 25 years, with less than $3 billion realised since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office. He said the company has never paid $25 billion in dividends to the Federation Account in a single payout.

Makinde is the Governor of Oyo State and the Allied Peoples Movement presidential candidate for the 2027 general election. His claim ties a fiscal grievance to a campaign calendar: the allegation is not merely that money is delayed, but that it is being held until after voters go to the polls.

That framing matters because it is difficult to verify from outside. The Presidency's figures are its own; they have not been independently audited.

If the Presidency's arithmetic holds, the claim as stated is implausible on its face. If Makinde's underlying complaint about delayed or withheld dividends has any basis, it raises questions about fiscal transparency and the timing of federal disbursements — questions that will not be settled by duelling statements.

The dispute tests whether Nigerians can see how NLNG money flows into the Federation Account and how FAAC shares it.