September CPI: Gasoline Up 9.1%, Core at 2.6% — and the Fed's October Call Is Now a Toss-Up

US consumer prices accelerated in September, the Labor Department reported Wednesday, October 14, 2026, with the consumer price index rising 0.6% for the month. Gasoline prices climbed 9.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% annually.

The report showed price pressures broadening beyond energy, raising concerns among economists that underlying inflation could be getting sticky. That distinction matters: an energy-driven spike can fade on its own, while a broader rise in core prices is harder for the Federal Reserve to look through.

Markets responded by re-pricing the Fed's October decision. After it, financial markets saw the decision as a closer call. One reading put October hike odds at 52%. A separate report, following comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr and the hot inflation reading, had markets pricing a better-than-70% chance of an October hike.

The two figures point in the same direction but not to the same place. Barr said further policy adjustments are likely needed to bring inflation down to target in a timely fashion. The Fed held its September 15-16 meeting, with a statement released September 16.

What is not established: whether the Fed will hike this month. The sources describe a closer call with shifting odds, not a decision. The scheduled date of the October meeting is not confirmed in the source material, and no current Fed chair is named there.

Politically, the report lands ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed about 78% of Americans blamed Trump's policies, including import tariffs and the Middle East conflict, for rising prices that are outpacing wages. That is a poll finding, not a measure of actual causation.

The practical stakes are straightforward. Another hike would raise borrowing costs for households and businesses. Whether September's numbers justify one depends on how much of the acceleration is gasoline — and how much is the stickier core trend the report also showed.