Fenerbahçe Win 3-0 at Rizespor as Asensio, Kahveci and Aydın Punish the Chances That Mattered

Fenerbahçe beat Rizespor 3-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, and the scoreline tells a story the underlying numbers do not. Rizespor generated 1.52 expected goals to Fenerbahçe's 0.96, took 19 shots to 13, and put five on target to Fenerbahçe's five. They lost by three.

Marco Asensio opened the scoring in the 12th minute, İrfan Kahveci made it two in the 84th, and Oğuz Aydın completed the scoring in the 87th. Three goals from three separate sources, all built through open play, none from set pieces — Fenerbahçe's xG from dead balls was 0.06, Rizespor's was zero.

Rizespor lined up in a 4-1-4-1, Fenerbahçe in a 4-2-3-1. The shapes produced a first half that belonged to the hosts on territory and chance creation: Rizespor out-shot Fenerbahçe 11-3 before the break, put four on target to Fenerbahçe's two, and built 1.02 xG to Fenerbahçe's 0.09. They also won 23 duels to Fenerbahçe's 15 and had 15 touches in the box to Fenerbahçe's six.

And yet they trailed 1-0 at half-time, because Asensio's 12th-minute finish — a left-footed strike from a Kerem Aktürkoglu assist, worth just 0.045 xG — was the one moment of quality that separated the sides. Fenerbahçe had three shots in the entire first half. One of them went in.

Possession finished level at 50-50, which flatters neither side's control. Rizespor had 48% in the first half and 52% in the second; Fenerbahçe had 52% and 48%. Neither team dominated the ball. The difference was what happened when it reached the final third.

Rizespor's problem was not creating chances. It was that their best chances fell to players who could not convert them. Ali Sowe accumulated 0.43 xG across the match without scoring. Zakaria Ariss added 0.26 xG. Ahmed Kutucu contributed 0.04. Between them, three of Rizespor's most involved attackers generated 0.73 xG and zero goals. The hosts finished with three big chances to Fenerbahçe's one, and lost 3-0.

Fenerbahçe's second half was a different proposition. They out-shot Rizespor 10-8 after the break, put three on target to Rizespor's one, and generated 0.87 xG to Rizespor's 0.50. The substitutions changed the game's shape: Oğuz Aydın came on and both scored and assisted, setting up Kahveci's 84th-minute goal before finishing Romelu Lukaku's assist three minutes later. Lukaku, introduced as a second-half presence, provided the assist for the third.

That is the sequence that broke Rizespor. For 83 minutes they were in the match, trailing by a single goal they had arguably deserved to cancel out. Then Kahveci scored, Aydın scored, and the game was gone in three minutes.

Fenerbahçe's 0.96 xG is the lowest total a winning side will produce in the Super Lig this season. They scored three goals from five shots on target, with an open-play xG of 0.90 and a set-play xG of 0.06. Rizespor's 1.52 xG — all from open play — is the highest total a losing side will produce in the same period. The hosts had 28 touches in the box to Fenerbahçe's 26, 193 passes in the opposition half to Fenerbahçe's 156, and 383 accurate passes at 84% to Fenerbahçe's 373 at 81%.

They also committed four fouls to Fenerbahçe's six, picked up no yellow cards, and won 40 duels to Fenerbahçe's 34. By almost every measure except the one that matters, Rizespor were the better team.

Fenerbahçe's win was built on the opposite of volume. Asensio's opener was worth 0.045 xG. Aydın's third was worth 0.061 xG. Kahveci's second came from a situation the feed does not classify, but the assist — Aydın's — was the product of a substitute who had been on the pitch for less than ten minutes. Fenerbahçe did not create much. They created enough, at the right moments, and they finished it.

Rizespor will look at this match and see a game they should have taken something from. Fenerbahçe will look at it and see three points, a clean sheet, and a bench that changed the result. Both readings are correct. The table will only record one of them.