Penn State study: 20% grocery price rise left even thrifty US families short of food

A Penn State study published in *Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy* sorted U.S. households into four profiles based on how they coped with rising grocery prices. The first group made almost no changes to shopping habits. The second swapped brand names for cheaper generic products. The third made comprehensive adjustments across financial obligations to increase the grocery budget. The fourth went without despite significant need.

All four profiles experienced increased food spending, according to the researchers. The study, which used U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data, linked higher grocery prices to higher risk of food insufficiency and worse mental health conditions. The period covered is 2020 to 2024, when U.S. grocery prices rose more than 20%, outpacing overall inflation, the researchers said.

About 44% of households made almost no changes to shopping habits, and 28% switched to cheaper generic products, according to the study's four response models.

PPIC survey data on working Californians found food and rent up 25% on average since 2020, with utilities and gas up 40%. KFF polling found 21% of adults are "very" worried about affording food and groceries, and 26% are "very" worried about affording health care costs.

What the findings do suggest is that the standard coping playbook — downgrading brands, cutting discretionary spending, borrowing, drawing down savings — may not be enough to keep food on the table. SNAP helps an average of 41.7 million Americans per month, or 1 in 8, averaging just a few dollars per person per day.