Norway End Losing Run But Solbakken's Points Return Still Trails Lagerbäck Era

Norway stopped the bleeding on Saturday night in Oslo, beating Wales 3-1 to end a three-match losing run that had become the first of its kind in a decade. Antonio Nusa struck on 59 minutes, Andreas Schjelderup doubled the lead nine minutes later, David Brooks pulled one back for Wales on 79, and Erling Haaland converted a penalty on 88 after Connor Roberts brought down Schjelderup. The result keeps Norway's hopes of staying in Nations League A alive and leaves Wales bottom of Group A4, facing a March play-off to avoid relegation to Group B.

Norway had 55 per cent possession, 15 shots to Wales's 12, six on target to five, and an expected goals figure of 2.56 against 1.03. They won eight corners to Wales's two and created four big chances to Wales's one. That is a convincing attacking display by any measure, and it came against a backdrop of Norway averaging 1.27 xG across their earlier 2026 matches. The 2.56 here, and the 1.32 from open play against an average of 0.78, suggest a side that found something closer to its attacking ceiling.

Across four 2026 friendly matches, Norway have one win, two draws and one defeat — 1.25 points per game. Compare that with the four friendly matches under Lars Lagerbäck in 2018: four wins, zero draws, zero defeats, three points per game. The comparison is not like for like in opposition or competition, and the sample on both sides is four matches. But the contrast is stark enough to raise a question about whether Solbakken's side is converting its attacking volume into results at the rate the talent in the squad might suggest.

Norway's 2026 results before Saturday read as a team struggling to find its footing: a 2-1 defeat to England at the World Cup in July, a 3-2 win over Denmark in September, then three straight losses — 2-1 to Portugal, 2-1 at Wales on 1 October, and 2-1 to Portugal again on 4 October. The win over Wales arrests that slide and keeps Norway in the hunt to stay in League A. It does not, on its own, resolve the broader pattern.

The attacking numbers against Wales were stronger than Norway's recent average, but the points return across 2026 remains below the rate of that earlier Lagerbäck window. Whether that gap reflects a genuine imbalance in Solbakken's setup or simply the short, uneven sample of four friendly matches is not something the available figures settle.

Wales, meanwhile, will finish bottom of Group A4 regardless of their Tuesday result at home to Portugal.