Liverpool's attack is producing more — so why is the return falling short?

Liverpool's 4–3 win over Villarreal at Anfield on 20 October was a seven-goal argument about what this team is becoming. Georges Mikautadze put the visitors ahead after four minutes, Sergi Cardona made it 2–0 on 29, and only then did Liverpool stir: Alexis Mac Allister pulled one back on 36, Ronald Araujo levelled on the stroke of half-time, Mac Allister struck again on 65, and Florian Wirtz made it 4–2 on 69. Tani Oluwaseyi's 87th-minute goal for Villarreal set up a finish that never quite arrived.

The scoreline says chaos. The underlying numbers say something more controlled. Liverpool had 52 per cent possession, 22 shots to 14, seven on target to five, and 2.37 expected goals to Villarreal's 1.58. Big chances were level at three apiece, and Liverpool's seven corners to two reflect a side that spent long spells pressing the game into the opposition's half. Villarreal scored three times from 1.58 xG; Liverpool scored four from 2.37. Both sides outran their expected goals, but only one of them had the territorial platform to justify it.

What stands out is how far this performance sits above Liverpool's earlier 2026/27 matches. Their 2.37 xG here compares with an average of 1.87 across their previous fixtures in all competitions. They made 294 passes in the opposition half against an average of 202.2, and registered 44 touches in the opposition box against an average of 29.4. Their goals minus expected goals in this match was 1.63, against an average of 0.0 across those earlier games. On the evidence of one night, the attacking process is producing more — more ball in dangerous areas, more penalty-box presence, more chances of genuine quality.

The results, though, tell a different story. Liverpool's Premier League record under Andoni Iraola in 2026/27 stands at three wins, three draws and one defeat from seven games, a return of 1.71 points per game. Compare that with the 2019/2020 league season under Jürgen Klopp: 32 wins, three draws and three defeats from 38 games, 2.61 points per game. That is the benchmark this squad is being measured against, fairly or not, and the gap is wide.

The squad turnover since the summer offers the most obvious explanation. Ronald Araujo, Jérémy Jacquet, Lucca Brughmans, Djylian N'Guessan, Bradley Barcola and Víctor Muñoz have arrived. Curtis Jones, Stefan Bajčetić, Carter Pinnington, Ibrahima Konaté, Harvey Elliott and Andrew Robertson have left. That is a significant rebuild of the defensive and midfield spine, and it is reasonable to ask whether the attacking volume is rising precisely because the team is chasing games more often, rather than controlling them from a position of strength.

It is worth being careful here. Seven league games is not a trend, and one Champions League night is not a season. The 4–3 against Villarreal is a single data point, however striking. The question the next matches will answer is whether the higher xG, the deeper passing and the extra box touches translate into the kind of points return that made the Klopp era a benchmark — or whether they remain the signature of a side that creates plenty and concedes too much.

The wider context matters too. Manchester City lead the 2026/27 Premier League at seven wins from seven with a goal difference of +12, according to standings published on 19 October. None of that is a Liverpool-specific finding, but it frames the difficulty of the task.

For now, the honest reading is this: Liverpool's attacking output against Villarreal was well above their earlier-season average, and the win was deserved on the balance of chances. Whether that represents the start of a genuine upturn, or a single night when a chaotic game fell their way, is a question the coming weeks will settle. The process is improving. The points have not yet followed.