Atlético Madrid Win 2-0 at Levante Despite Losing the Chance Battle

Atlético Madrid left Estadio Ciudad de Valencia with a 2-0 win over Levante on Saturday, but the scoreline told only half the story. Diego Simeone's side scored twice from 0.58 expected goals while Levante generated 1.25 xG and took 20 shots to Atlético's 11. The visitors won because they finished the two clear looks they created; Levante lost because they could not finish any of theirs.

Alejandro Grimaldo opened the scoring in the 36th minute with a left-footed strike from open play worth 0.11 xG. It was Atlético's first shot on target of the match and came against the run of play in a first half where Levante had already registered six shots to Atlético's five. Giuliano Simeone doubled the lead in the 62nd minute, finishing left-footed from 0.15 xG after Álex Baena supplied the assist. That was the cushion Atlético needed, and they defended it for the final half-hour.

Levante lined up in a 4-3-3 and Atlético in a 4-4-2, and for long stretches the shape battle favoured the hosts. Levante finished with 46% possession but 20 shots, 30 touches in the box and 1.25 xG — all higher than Atlético's corresponding numbers. Their open-play xG of 0.99 dwarfed Atlético's 0.53, and they added 0.26 from set plays. Yet only four of those 20 shots hit the target. Atlético, by contrast, put five of 11 on target and scored twice.

The second half was where Levante's territorial control peaked. They had 57% possession after the break, took 14 shots to Atlético's six, and racked up 20 touches in the box to Atlético's five. They also won 24 duels to Atlético's 19 in that period. But the big chances tell the story: Levante created one big chance all match, Atlético two. The hosts' 0.69 second-half xG produced no goals; Atlético's 0.35 produced one.

Grimaldo's goal was his only shot of the match, and it came from just 0.13 xG across his total output. Simeone's was similar: one goal from 0.23 xG. Neither player dominated the ball, but both converted when the chance arrived. Baena, who assisted Simeone's goal, finished with 0.01 xG and no shots of note — his contribution was the pass, not the finish. Marcos Llorente (0.02 xG) and Julián Álvarez (0.04 xG) were similarly quiet in front of goal.

Atlético's efficiency was the difference. They scored twice from 0.58 xG — a conversion rate that Levante, with 1.25 xG and zero goals, could not match. The visitors also completed 496 passes at 88% accuracy to Levante's 387 at 86%, and they edged the opposition-half passing 218 to 205. But Levante won more duels overall (45–41) and matched Atlético's seven fouls. Neither side received a yellow card.

Atlético Madrid take three points from a match where they were second-best in chance creation. That is the kind of away performance that frustrates opponents and satisfies managers. Levante, meanwhile, are left with the familiar problem of volume without end product: 20 shots, 30 box touches, 1.25 xG, no goals. The scoreline says 0-2. The underlying numbers say Levante did enough to get something. They did not.