Israel votes October 27: Netanyahu's bloc trails Eisenkot 52-50

Israelis vote on October 27 in the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the Gaza war that followed.

A recent poll puts Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc at 50 of the Knesset's 120 seats, with the bloc around Gadi Eisenkot at 52. Recent polls also show Netanyahu's Likud trailing Eisenkot's party. The numbers describe a close race, not a verdict.

Eisenkot, a plain-spoken former military chief, formed his party only last year and has channelled public anger over the October 7 failure. He is running neck and neck with Netanyahu in the polls. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, remains entangled in a long-running corruption trial and under renewed pressure from reports he was warned about the Hamas threat in 2023.

Few Israeli analysts are willing to write him off. That caution is the story of this election. His campaign has leaned on a single slogan, "Either the Right or Palestine," and he has touted an endorsement from Donald Trump while warning that hostile powers want him to lose.

No single party has ever won an outright majority, so the winner will likely depend on a broad coalition that can unravel quickly. The outcome will determine whether Netanyahu extends his political career or whether Israel shifts direction, and it will shape the country's approach to security, its relationship with the Trump administration, and the aftermath of the Gaza war.

Polls suggest Netanyahu's coalition will not survive. They do not say what replaces it.