Inter 2-1 Fiorentina: 33 shots, two stoppage-time goals and a scoreline that flatters the visitors

Inter beat Fiorentina 2-1 at San Siro on Sunday, and the scoreline is the least interesting thing about it. The champions needed stoppage-time goals from Marcus Thuram and Piotr Zieliński to overturn Álex Jiménez's 65th-minute opener, a win that kept their hold on the Serie A lead after Lazio had beaten Parma 2-1 on Saturday night. What the numbers describe is not a close contest. What the scoreline describes is not a rout. The gap between the two is the story.

Inter had 63% possession, 33 shots to Fiorentina's 7, 11 on target to 2, and 58 touches in the opposition box to 12. Fiorentina's goalkeeper made nine saves; Inter's made one. On expected goals, Inter finished with 2.90 to Fiorentina's 0.24. By any measure of process, this was a one-sided match that stayed 1-0 to the visitors until the 90th minute.

The comparison with Inter's own season makes the point sharper. Across their earlier 2026/27 matches in all competitions, Inter averaged 19 shots, 34.4 touches in the opposition box and four corners. Here they had 33 shots, 58 box touches and six corners. They generated roughly 70% more shot volume and 70% more box presence than their own baseline, and still needed the last minutes to win.

That is not a finishing collapse in isolation. Inter's goals minus expected goals in this match was -0.9, against an average of 0.0 across their earlier 2026/27 matches. One match of underperformance against a goalkeeper who made nine saves is not a trend, and it should not be written as one.

The absences matter to any fair reading. Inter were without John Stones, Curtis Jones, Lautaro Martinez, Benjamin Pavard and Luis Henrique. Francesco Pio Esposito returned to the starting XI alongside Thuram, and Ivan Provedel made his Inter debut in goal. Fiorentina travelled without Fabiano Parisi, Arthur Atta and Luca Ranieri. Losing Lautaro Martinez removes the most reliable penalty-box finisher from a side that already relies on volume; replacing him with a returning Esposito changes the profile of the chances Inter create, even if it does not change the count.

What the data cannot settle is whether Inter's 33 shots represented control or the absence of it. A side that dominates the ball and the box against a packed defence will accumulate shots; the question is whether those shots are the ones a title-winning side wants. Inter's big chances numbered one. Fiorentina's numbered none. That single big chance against 33 shots suggests Inter were mostly reduced to efforts from distance and half-openings, and that Fiorentina's goalkeeper was busy rather than unbeatable.

Whether that is a repeatable weakness or a cold afternoon is what the next matches will answer. Inter's process is producing more than enough to win most weeks. Their finishing, on this evidence, is producing just enough to win this one. A title race is not decided by process, and Inter remain top. But a side that needs stoppage-time goals to convert 2.90 expected goals into three points is a side whose margin for error is thinner than its shot count suggests.