Forest's Familiar Flaw: Early Lead, Late Regret at Ipswich

Nottingham Forest took the lead at Portman Road in the 13th minute and still could not win. Neco Williams finished a Daniel Munoz cross to put them ahead, Julio Enciso equalised for Ipswich in the 41st, and the match finished 1-1. The result leaves Forest on six points from eight games (one win, three draws, four defeats) and Ipswich on ten (three wins, one draw, four defeats).

On the surface it is a point gained on the road. Underneath, it is the same problem in a new shirt: Forest control long spells, create the better chances, and fail to turn any of it into a victory.

The raw match data is lopsided. Forest had 51 per cent possession to Ipswich's 49, 17 shots to seven, five on target to three, four big chances to two, and five corners to none. Their expected goals figure was 2.31; Ipswich's was 0.46. Forest's goals minus expected goals in this match was -1.31, against an average of 0.0 across their earlier 2026/2027 matches in all competitions. Their xG of 2.31 here sits well above their 1.71 average across those earlier games.

That gap between chance volume and scoreline is the story. Forest did not lose this match because they were outplayed. They lost two points because a 2.31 xG performance produced one goal, and because a single Milenkovic error let Enciso race through to level before half-time. Davis also cleared a Gibbs-White effort off the line before the break, which is the other half of the same picture: Forest created enough to be out of sight and were not.

It would be easy to call this unlucky. The finishing-versus-chance-volume reading is real, and one match is not a trend. But it is also not the first time this season that Forest have had the better of a game without the result to show for it.

The contrast with Forest's recent past is stark. Under Nuno Espírito Santo in 2024/2025, Forest took 1.71 points per game across a 38-game Premier League season, with 19 wins, eight draws and 11 defeats. Under Oliver Glasner in 2026/2027 so far, that figure is 0.71 points per game over seven league games before this match, from one win, two draws and four defeats. The Ipswich draw makes it eight games and seven points.

The run before Suffolk tells its own story: a 0-0 with Tottenham, a 2-1 win at Aston Villa, then 0-1 at home to Coventry, 1-3 at Crystal Palace, 0-1 at home to Arsenal, and now 1-1 at Ipswich. Three consecutive league defeats preceded this match, and reports before kick-off noted pressure mounting on Glasner. Before the game Forest were 19th with five points and one victory; Ipswich were 10th with nine points. After it, Forest have six points and Ipswich ten.

There is a squad explanation available, and it is worth testing rather than assuming. Forest's summer business brought in Xaver Schlager, Ousmane Diomande, Liam Delap, Lorenzo Lucca, Gustavo Sá and Daniel Muñoz, while Elliot Anderson, Morato, David Carmo, Taiwo Awoniyi, Arnaud Kalimuendo-Muinga and Gustavo Sá departed. That is significant turnover in both directions, and it is a reasonable question whether the balance of the 2024/2025 side has been rebuilt. It is not yet a proven cause. The current-season record is seven league games old before this match, and eight after it — too short to call a trend, and too short to separate a squad-transition problem from a finishing problem.

Ipswich will take the draw. They have won two of their first three home games this season and were in the top half after almost a fifth of the campaign. Their home form is the platform for a survival attempt, and a point against a side with Forest's recent pedigree, however troubled, fits that pattern. But this match was not a story about Ipswich's bright start. They were second-best on chances by a distance and were kept in it by Forest's wastefulness and one defensive error.

The bigger question follows Forest to their next fixture. Can they convert early control into wins? The data from Portman Road says they had the chances to do so. The table says they did not, and that the gap between the Nuno era and the Glasner era is now measured in points per game, not in promise.