Everton’s St. James' Park Success: A Structural Shift or Tactical Anomaly?

Everton’s 1-0 victory over Newcastle United at St. James' Park on November 2, 2026, was more than just a routine away win; it was a statement of intent. Thierno Barry’s 49th-minute strike, capitalising on a loose ball after a strike from his teammate squirmed beneath the goalkeeper, secured three points that propelled David Moyes’ side from 14th to 7th in the Premier League table. For Newcastle, managed by Matthias Jaissle, the defeat compounds a difficult start to the campaign, leaving them languishing in 13th place.

While the result suggests a significant climb for the visitors, the underlying numbers paint a more complex picture of Everton’s current trajectory. Under David Moyes this season, Everton have averaged 1.25 points per game across eight league matches, a return that remains some distance from the 1.89 points per game achieved by Roberto Martínez’s side during the 2013/2014 season. The squad has undergone substantial turnover, with arrivals such as Christian Nørgaard, Hayden Hackney, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Merlin Röhl, Jack Grealish, and Brennan Johnson replacing departures like Beto, Nathan Patterson, Iliman Ndiaye, and Dwight McNeil. Whether this new-look group can replicate the structural balance of past successful sides remains the central question of the season.

Tactically, the match provided evidence of a deliberate shift in Everton’s approach. The visitors recorded 30 touches in the opposition box, a marked increase compared to their average of 20.6 across earlier matches this season. Their expected goals (xG) of 2.15 also significantly outperformed their season average of 1.33. Most notably, Everton’s threat from set pieces was elevated, generating an xG of 1.54 compared to a season average of just 0.3.

Despite this increased volume, the narrow 1-0 scoreline highlights a lingering inefficiency. Everton’s goals scored minus expected goals in this match stood at -1.15, a stark contrast to their average of 0.0 across all previous competitions this season. While they dominated the high-value chances—creating three big chances to Newcastle’s two—the disparity between their attacking output and the final result suggests that Everton are still learning how to translate sustained pressure into comfortable victories.

For Newcastle, the evening was one of frustration. Despite holding 52% of the possession and matching the visitors with 17 shots, they managed only two shots on target. The defensive vulnerabilities that have seen the Magpies concede 14 goals in their opening nine league matches were again on display, as they struggled to contain an Everton side that had already beaten them 3-1 in the EFL Cup just four days prior.

The night ended in further disarray for the hosts when substitute Jacob Ramsey was shown two yellow cards in quick succession during stoppage time. With Ramsey now facing a suspension, Matthias Jaissle must find a way to tighten a backline that has looked increasingly porous.

Thierno Barry, who has now netted eight goals in all competitions this season, is currently carrying the attacking burden, but for Moyes to sustain this momentum, the team must find a way to marry their improved chance creation with greater clinical precision. For now, the climb to 7th provides a platform, but the gap between their process and their points return suggests there is still work to be done.