Ethiopia and Eritrea sever ties as northern fighting risks regional war

Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to leave within 48 hours on Thursday, accusing them of activities threatening national security. Eritrea responded the same day by severing diplomatic relations, stating Ethiopia's decision left it no choice but to take reciprocal action. The rupture followed powerful explosions overnight in Addis Ababa, including near the military headquarters, and a sharp deterioration marked by Ethiopian allegations that Eritrea backs a new rebel alliance in Tigray.

Heavy fighting has resumed in northern Ethiopia over the past week, killing more than 50 people. A pro-government militia claims to have seized a town 20 kilometres from Mekelle, the Tigray regional capital. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting a new rebel alliance, an allegation Asmara has repeatedly denied. The diplomatic channel that might have contained the escalation no longer exists.

Analysts warn the unrest is likely to spill into neighbouring states and could further destabilise war-torn Sudan. The clashes are already the most severe in Ethiopia since the 2020-2022 civil war that killed hundreds of thousands. That conflict drew in Eritrean forces on the Ethiopian government's side before a peace agreement in November 2022. The current rupture reverses the rapprochement that followed.

The explosions in Addis Ababa preceded the diplomatic moves by hours. Their origin remains unconfirmed. Ethiopian authorities have not publicly attributed responsibility. The timing suggests a connection to the deteriorating security situation in the north, but no evidence has been presented linking the blasts to Eritrea or to the rebel alliance Ethiopia says Asmara supports.

Eritrea's information ministry said Ethiopia's expulsion of its diplomats was "unilateral and unlawful" and that Asmara would take "reciprocal measures." The severing of ties removes the primary official channel for de-escalation. During the 2020-2022 war, backchannel communication between the capitals continued even at the height of hostilities. That option is now closed.

Regional analysts describe a dangerous feedback loop. Fighting in Tigray creates pressure on both governments to demonstrate resolve. Ethiopia's accusation of Eritrean backing for a new rebel alliance, if true, would represent a significant shift from the post-2022 alignment. Eritrea's denial follows a pattern of rejecting external involvement claims, but its forces operated extensively inside Tigray during the previous war.

Sudan's ongoing civil war adds a volatile neighbour to the west. Refugee flows, arms movement, and competing external interests already link the two conflicts. Analysts say a wider Ethiopian-Eritrean confrontation could create a corridor of instability stretching from the Red Sea to the Sahel. The African Union and IGAD have not yet announced mediation efforts.

Humanitarian access to Tigray, already constrained, faces new obstacles. The previous war saw widespread displacement and famine conditions. Aid agencies rely on diplomatic coordination for cross-border operations. With embassies closed, even routine notifications become difficult.

Open questions remain. The nature and leadership of the alleged new rebel alliance are unclear. Ethiopia has not presented public evidence of Eritrean support. The extent of Eritrean military involvement, if any, is unknown. Whether regional or international actors can reopen a diplomatic track before the fighting spreads is uncertain. What is clear is that the two capitals have chosen confrontation over dialogue, and the region is watching the consequences unfold.