Dortmund's volume rises in Baku but the points still lag the process

Borussia Dortmund left Baku with a 2-1 win over Sabah FK on 20 October 2026, Serhou Guirassy scoring in the 10th and 53rd minutes, and the result did what a result can do: it ended a run of two draws and a defeat since the international break and lifted Dortmund to six points from three Champions League league-phase games. Sabah, who equalised through Aden McCarthy's 39th-minute header from a Puchacz free-kick, stayed on three. On paper, Niko Kovac's argument holds.

Kovac had rejected the idea of a crisis before the match, pointing to two draws and one defeat and a league position level on points with Bayern. The win supports him in the only currency that counts. But the fixture itself is the caveat. Sabah were founded in 2017 and are playing their first Champions League league phase; beating them is not the same test as the ones that produced the wobble. The question the reader should carry away is not whether Dortmund can beat Sabah, but whether this performance tells us anything about the matches that actually decide Kovac's tenure.

Dortmund's attacking volume in Baku was well above their own recent baseline. They took 22 shots against an average of 13.4 across their earlier 2026/27 matches in all competitions, generated 3.72 expected goals against an average of 1.46, and built 2.95 xG from open play against an average of 1.15. They also won nine corners against an average of 6.4. Those are not the numbers of a side grinding out a narrow win against modest opposition; they are the numbers of a side that created enough to win comfortably and did not.

The gap between goals and expected goals tells the same story. Dortmund scored twice from 3.72 xG, a difference of -1.72, against an average of 0.0 across their earlier matches this season. That is one match, not a trend, and it should not be dressed up as one. But it is the kind of single-match figure that explains why a coach can insist the process is fine while the table looks unconvincing. Dortmund had five big chances to Sabah's two, nine shots on target to four, and 55 per cent possession. They were the better side by a distance. They won by one goal.

Sabah's own numbers deserve a mention. They managed 1.47 xG from 13 shots, and McCarthy's header was a genuine reward for a spell in which Mickels had a goal ruled out for offside. The second-half pressure Kovac's defence absorbed was not nothing. A 2-1 scoreline against a side founded in 2017 will read, to some, as evidence of vulnerability. The shot count and xG say the more accurate reading is a team that controlled the match and briefly lost concentration.

Kovac made four changes from the side held to a goalless draw by Union Berlin, bringing in Fabio Silva, Carney Chukwuemeka, Joey Veerman and Ramy Bensebaini. Veerman assisted Guirassy's second. The rotation worked in the sense that Dortmund created more than they had in the league stalemate, though the comparison is complicated by the opposition and the competition. The attacking volume rose against Dortmund's own season baseline; whether it rose against the Union match specifically is a question the available figures do not answer cleanly, and it should be left as one.

The broader picture is a team whose results have lagged its process. Dortmund's recent run before Baku — a 3-0 win over Paderborn, a 1-0 win at Stuttgart, a 2-2 draw with Werder Bremen, a Champions League defeat at Bodø/Glimt, and a 0-0 at Union Berlin — is not the record of a side in freefall, but it is also not the record of a side converting its chances. Kovac's contract extension to 2029 has divided supporters, and a win over Sabah will not settle that division either way. It was the fixture Dortmund needed, and they took it. The next matches will tell us whether the volume in Baku was a sign of something building or simply a good night against a young club still finding its feet at this level.