Croatia's Nations League Collapse Deepens as Kane Seals England Win

England beat Croatia 2-1 at Wembley on Thursday 12 November 2026, a result that moved them to 12 points in Nations League A Group 3, three clear of Spain, and set up a winner-takes-all meeting with Spain on Sunday. Croatia stayed on three points from five matches. The scoreline was tight. The underlying numbers were not.

Morgan Rogers opened the scoring in the 24th minute after Josko Gvardiol failed to deal with Jude Bellingham's pass. Petar Sucic equalised for Croatia in the 59th minute, pouncing on a poor Jarell Quansah header. Harry Kane scored the winner from the penalty spot in the 64th minute, on his record-breaking 126th England appearance and his 92nd international goal.

England's expected goals figure of 2.81 against Croatia's 1.22 tells a story the 2-1 scoreline obscures. England had 15 shots to Croatia's 13, but Croatia managed five on target to England's four. Both sides created three big chances. Croatia won seven corners to England's six.

Where Croatia struggled was in open play. Their expected goals from open play was 0.34, against an average of 1.11 across their earlier 2026 matches. Their set-piece expected goals was 0.87, against an average of 0.1. That is a striking inversion: a side that had barely threatened from dead balls all year suddenly generated almost all of its danger from them. Sucic's goal came from a defensive error, not a constructed move.

Croatia also won 51 duels, against an average of 32.4 across their earlier 2026 matches. They were physically competitive. They were not, however, creative.

Croatia's 2026 results make grim reading. They lost 2-1 to Portugal in the World Cup in July. In Nations League A Group 3, they beat Czechia 2-1 in September, then lost 4-1 to Spain, 7-0 to England, 2-1 to Spain again, and now 2-1 to England. That is one win in five, three points, and a goal difference that has taken a severe battering.

The contrast with Croatia's 2022/2023 Nations League campaign under Zlatko Dalic is stark. Dalic's side took 2.0 points per game over eight matches in League A, with five wins, one draw and two defeats. The current side, under Slaven Bilic, has 0.75 points per game over four matches in this competition, with one win and three defeats. The sample is small. But the direction of travel is clear, and the 7-0 defeat at home to England last month remains the campaign's defining result.

There was no revenge at Wembley, only another defeat. England's path is straightforward. Kane's milestone night — his 126th cap and 92nd international goal — will dominate the headlines. But the more revealing number is Croatia's three points from five matches.