Merino's Late Double Sinks Croatia as Spain Steal 2-1 Win at Poljud

Mikel Merino scored twice in the second half, including an 88th-minute winner, as Spain came from behind to beat Croatia 2-1 in UEFA Nations League A Group 3 at Stadion Poljud. Croatia will wonder how they lost a match they largely controlled in the first half and edged on chance quality across 90 minutes.

Ivan Perišić had given the hosts a 17th-minute lead with a header from Igor Matanović's assist, and for long stretches of the first period Croatia looked the more dangerous side. But Spain's persistence in possession eventually told, Merino equalising on 61 minutes from Dani Olmo's pass before Martín Zubimendi set him up for the late decider.

Croatia set up in a 4-5-1: four at the back, five across midfield sitting deep, one centre-forward. The shape was designed to squeeze space in front of the defence and force Spain wide, and for 45 minutes it worked almost perfectly. Spain dominated the ball — 67% possession in the first half — but Croatia's compact midfield line limited clear openings. Spain managed just five first-half shots to Croatia's nine, and only one on target.

Spain's 4-3-3 struggled to find pockets between the lines. Mikel Oyarzabal was the most obvious casualty, completing just 52.4% of his passes across 24 touches and finishing with a 6.54 rating. Lamine Yamal, despite a 7.5 rating, was limited to 74.5% passing accuracy and was dispossessed once. Álex Baena also found the going tough, dispossessed once and restricted to 33 touches. The Spanish centre-backs and Rodri, by contrast, racked up huge touch counts — Pau Cubarsí 112, Marc Pubill 99, Rodri 98 — because Croatia were content to let them have the ball in harmless areas.

Croatia's attacking returns were efficient. Perišić's header carried an xG of just 0.14, but the finish was clinical. Igor Matanović, the lone centre-forward, generated 0.55 xG on his own — more than any Spain player managed across the entire match. Croatia's first-half xG of 1.01 dwarfed Spain's 0.57, and their 13 touches in the box to Spain's 10 reflected a side that knew exactly how to hurt the visitors on the break.

The interval changed everything. Spain's possession climbed to 77% after the break, and Croatia's attacking output collapsed. The hosts managed just one second-half shot, one touch in the box, and zero corners. Spain, meanwhile, racked up 17 touches in the box and four corners, pinning Croatia deeper and deeper.

Merino's 61st-minute equaliser came from open play, a left-footed finish with an xG of 0.34 — the best chance of the match. Dani Olmo, who finished with 0.4 xG himself, provided the assist. It was the reward for Spain's growing territorial grip, and Croatia had no answer.

As the game wore on, Croatia's 4-5-1 became less a trap and more a cage. The five-man midfield that had screened so effectively in the first half could not get out, and Spain's passing carousel — 697 accurate passes at 90% — kept recycling possession. Rodri's 94.6% pass accuracy and Cubarsí's 93.9% from centre-back underlined how comfortable Spain were in circulation.

The winner arrived on 88 minutes. Zubimendi, who had been part of the midfield control all evening, found Merino again, and the Arsenal midfielder converted a left-footed chance worth 0.09 xG. It was the kind of low-percentage opportunity Croatia had been conceding all half, and Merino took it.

Croatia finished with more shots on target (5-3), more big chances (4-3), and a higher xG (1.17-1.09). They won 24 duels to Spain's 33 but committed 12 fouls to Spain's 10. The match was, by chance volume, Croatia's to win. Spain's victory was built on patience, possession, and two moments of quality from Merino.

Spain's 72% possession and 491 passes in the opposition half tell the story of a side that refused to panic after going behind. Croatia's 82 opposition-half passes — 62 of them in the first half — show a team that had a plan for 45 minutes and then watched it dissolve.

For Croatia, the defeat is a lesson in game management. For Spain, it is evidence that even when the chances don't flow, the control can. Merino's brace — from 0.34 xG and 0.09 xG — was the difference between a deserved draw and a smash-and-grab win.

FotMob.