COP31 Confronts a World Already Past 1.5°C

The 1.5°C threshold that anchored a decade of climate diplomacy is no longer a target to be met but a line about to be crossed. The world has already warmed about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, and the UN declared in September that crossing 1.5°C was imminent and unavoidable. At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, delegates are negotiating what comes next. The two-week summit is scheduled to conclude on November 20.

An 18-strong delegation of Democratic US lawmakers joined the talks after their party regained control of both chambers of Congress in midterm elections. President Donald Trump is shunning the summit. The Democratic presence signals a possible return to US climate engagement, though trust, once broken, is not rebuilt by attendance alone.

UN chief António Guterres called for a new global climate justice agreement and urged governments to tax fossil fuel companies to help countries bearing the brunt of a crisis they did little to cause. His proposal lands amid unresolved fights over climate finance, adaptation funding, and the future of fossil fuels.

Halfway through negotiations, thousands of climate activists marched in Antalya — a rare large-scale public protest in Turkey. The march underscored public pressure on governments to deliver outcomes that match the scale of the overshoot.

The symbolic collapse of 1.5°C does not end the Paris Agreement, but it forces a reckoning. Nations must now decide how to acknowledge overshoot formally, whether to set a new target, and how to fund the damage. The US midterm results have raised hopes for restored engagement, but the delegation arrives without executive power. Concrete commitments, not presence, will determine whether the US can help rebuild trust.

What COP31 produces on finance and fossil fuels remains open. The summit's final day is November 20.