Belgium win in Izmir but Van Bommel's side still lack balance

Belgium left Izmir with the points, but not with the performance. Mark van Bommel's side came from behind to beat Turkey 2-1 at the Gürsel Aksel Stadium on Thursday, Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere scoring within three minutes of each other before the half-hour mark after Arda Güler's 20th-minute free kick had put the hosts ahead. The result lifts Belgium to nine points in Nations League A Group 1, temporarily above Italy on seven and behind France on 10, while Turkey remain bottom on zero.

On the surface, a comeback away from home against a side that had just changed coach looks like the kind of result that builds momentum. The raw figures complicate that reading. Turkey had 53% possession to Belgium's 47%, made 515 passes to Belgium's 451, and completed 88.5% of them against Belgium's 84.7%. They also played 143 successful final-third passes to Belgium's 83, and made 23 tackles to Belgium's 14. Sergen Yalçın's first match in charge produced more territorial control and more defensive aggression than the scoreline suggests.

Belgium's edge came in the areas that decide matches. They had 12 shots to Turkey's 10, 33 touches in the opposition box to Turkey's 23, and an expected goals figure of 1.85 against Turkey's 0.51. That xG gap is the most telling number of the night. Belgium did not dominate the ball, but when they had it in dangerous areas they created far better chances. De Bruyne's equaliser and De Ketelaere's winner were not against the run of play in the sense of being lucky; they were the product of a side that, for a short burst before the half-hour, found the kind of penetration Turkey could not match.

Van Bommel has now won two and lost two since taking over in the summer. That is four matches, which is not enough to call a trend. But the shape of those results is worth noting. Belgium beat Turkey 3-0 in the reverse fixture in October, then lost 4-1 to France in their previous outing. The win in Izmir keeps them in the quarterfinal hunt, but it does not answer whether they can sustain a challenge against stronger opposition.

The comparison with Roberto Martínez's 2018 Nations League campaign is instructive, though it comes with the obvious caveat that the squad and the opposition are different. Martínez's Belgium took 2.25 points per game from their four matches in that competition. Van Bommel's current return is 1.5 from four. That gap is not proof of decline, but it does frame the question: is this a side in transition, or one that has not yet found the balance that made the previous generation so consistent?

For Turkey, the defeat is a fifth consecutive loss in the Nations League. They have scored two and conceded 11 across those matches, a run that cost Vincenzo Montella his job. Yalçın's debut produced more possession, more passes and more tackles than Belgium, but no points. The new coach has a clear brief: stop the rot before relegation becomes a formality.

Belgium, meanwhile, move on with the points but not with the performance. The attacking volume was higher than their earlier 2026 matches — 182 passes in the opposition half against an average of 129.8, 33 touches in the box against an average of 19, and 1.85 xG against an average of 1.19. That is a genuine improvement in the final third. Whether it can be repeated against France or Italy, and whether it can be paired with the control that Turkey enjoyed for long stretches in Izmir, is the question Van Bommel's side have not yet answered. Their next match will offer another chance to do so.