Bafana Bafana Let Kenya Off the Hook as Broos's Side Drop Two More Points

South Africa led twice at Orlando Stadium on Friday night and still could not beat Kenya. Relebohile Mofokeng put Bafana Bafana 2-1 up in the 77th minute, only for substitute Ryan Ogam to equalise at the death and secure a 2-2 draw in Group D of 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying.

The result leaves South Africa on seven points from three matches, having entered the game top of the group with six from two. Kenya, already qualified for the tournament as co-hosts, had collected just one point before arriving in Johannesburg.

South Africa had 62 per cent of the ball, 11 shots to Kenya's 10, five on target to four, and five big chances to one. They completed 499 passes at 84 per cent accuracy; Kenya managed 304 at 76 per cent. By almost every measure, the home side did enough to win comfortably.

They did not, because they could not hold a lead. Amos Wanjala's own goal gave South Africa the advantage inside ten minutes — the ninth minute according to ESPN, the eighth according to Nation — and Michael Olunga's 44th-minute penalty brought Kenya level. Mofokeng restored the lead with thirteen minutes of normal time remaining. Ogam's strike at the stroke of full time undid it again.

That pattern — territorial and chance dominance without a corresponding scoreline — is the kind of thing that looks like bad luck in a single match. Across a qualifying campaign, it starts to look like something else.

It is worth saying plainly that three matches is not a trend. Nobody should read a season's worth of meaning into one night in November.

What the night does do is sit alongside a broader question about this Bafana Bafana side's ability to close out matches. Under Hugo Broos in 2026, the friendly record stands at one win, two draws and one loss from four games — 1.25 points per game. Under Ephraim Mashaba in 2016, the equivalent friendly return was three wins and a draw from four, 2.5 points per game. The comparison is not like-for-like: friendlies are not qualifiers, and a decade separates the two windows. But it is the clearest numerical contrast available between this campaign's early balance and a recent period when South Africa were converting tight games into wins.

Whether that gap reflects squad turnover, tactical approach, or simply the randomness of a small sample is not something Friday's match can settle.

Kenya, for their part, will take genuine encouragement from a performance in which they were second-best for long stretches but stayed in the game and punished South Africa twice. McCarthy's side have now drawn two and lost one in the qualifiers, and while their co-host status means their place in the tournament is secure, the result in Johannesburg suggests they will not be pushovers when the finals arrive.

The next match will say more about whether that matters.