Başakşehir 3-1 Samsunspor at the break: Shomurodov, Skov Olsen and Bayram punish the 3-5-2

Başakşehir lead Samsunspor 3-1 at half-time at the Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, and the scoreline is doing the work the chance count alone would not. The hosts have 67 per cent of the ball, seven shots to five, four on target to two, and a 1.16-0.90 expected-goals edge. Samsunspor's 3-5-2 has not been a wall. It has been a trapdoor that keeps swinging open at set pieces.

Eldor Shomurodov opened it on 10 minutes, right foot, from Ivan Brnić's assist, a 0.55 xG chance converted with the kind of early certainty that settles a home crowd. Samsunspor answered inside twelve minutes. Tanguy Coulibaly finished left-footed from Mohamed Bayo's pass on 22 minutes, a 0.76 xG look that stands as the best single chance of the half. That is the individual number the game will be remembered for if Samsunspor find a way back.

Başakşehir did not wobble. Andreas Skov Olsen restored the lead on 26 minutes from Saba Kharebashvili's assist, and Emin Bayram headed the third on 41 minutes from Jakub Kałuziński's corner. Bayram's header carried 0.29 xG, and it is the clearest evidence of where this match has been decided. Başakşehir have generated 0.29 xG from set plays; Samsunspor have 0.03. Open play is level at 0.87 apiece. The difference is dead balls and the second phase around them.

Samsunspor set up with three centre-backs, five across midfield and two forwards, a shape designed to clog the middle and spring Coulibaly and Bayo on the break. It worked in patches. Başakşehir's pass accuracy sits at 85 per cent, but the individual numbers show where the block bit. Andreas Skov Olsen was dispossessed once and completed only 61.9 per cent of his passes across 29 touches, despite a 7.85 rating built on the goal. Olivier Kemen managed 68.2 per cent from 28 touches. Muhammed Şengezer, at 87.1 per cent from 33 touches, has had the ball more than most goalkeepers would like.

The counterweight is on the other side of the ledger. Michał Karbownik completed 91.7 per cent of his passes across 38 touches, Ousseynou Ba was perfect from 53 touches, and Emin Bayram combined a 93.5 per cent passing return with the goal and a 7.92 rating. Başakşehir's 4-2-3-1 has not needed to be pretty in central areas. It has needed to be precise at the edges, and it has been.

Samsunspor have eight touches in the box to Başakşehir's eight, and they have won 21 duels to the hosts' 26. They have committed eight fouls to four and picked up the half's only yellow card. This has not been a smash-and-grab against a passive away side. It has been a contest in which Başakşehir's superior finishing and set-piece delivery have created a two-goal cushion that the underlying chance creation does not fully justify.

Coulibaly's 0.76 xG is the highest single figure on the pitch. Shomurodov's 0.55 is next. Skov Olsen's goal came from just 0.12 xG, and Bayram's header from 0.29. Başakşehir have scored three from 1.16. Samsunspor have scored one from 0.90. That is the half in one line: the hosts have taken their chances, and the visitors have not.

Samsunspor need two goals in 45 minutes against a side that has conceded 0.90 xG and looks comfortable in possession. The 3-5-2 has done its job in open play. It has not done its job at corners, and that is why Başakşehir are 45 minutes from three points.