“Net migration to the UK has decreased by 82%.” — Shabana Mahmood. Our verdict: False.
Shabana Mahmood made the claim in a news report about immigration savings, published by East Ren News.
Our verdict
False
The claim is false. Official figures show net migration fell by about 48% in the most recent year, not 82%.
What we found
Shabana Mahmood said net migration to the UK had fallen by 82%. The Office for National Statistics reports that net migration was 331,000 in the year ending December 2024 and 171,000 in the year ending December 2025. That is a fall of about 48%, which the ONS describes as 'nearly halved' and a BBC report calls 'almost half'. An 82% drop only appears if you compare the latest figure with the peak of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023, but the claim did not say it was using that baseline. On the usual reading of 'has decreased' — the change from the previous year — the figure does not stand up, so we rate the claim false.
The numbers
Net migration to the UK (thousands)
Net migration fell from 331,000 in the year ending December 2024 to 171,000 in the year ending December 2025.
Figures in people
The evidence
1 contradict and 3 support the claim, of 6 sources.
- Background
Shabana Mahmood stated that net migration has been reduced by 82%. [1]
- Contradicts the claim
Official ONS data shows net migration fell from 331,000 in the year ending December 2024 to 171,000 in the year ending December 2025, a decrease of about 48%. [2]
- Background
A BBC report confirms net migration was 171,000 and describes it as 'almost half' the 2024 figure. [3]
- Supports the claim
ONS provisional estimates put net migration at 171,000 in the year ending December 2025, down from 331,000 a year earlier. [4]
- Supports the claim
ONS revised estimates show a peak net migration of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023, which is the only baseline that would produce a fall of roughly 82%. [5]
- Supports the claim
Independent analysis from the Migration Observatory confirms net migration in 2025 was 171,000 and notes a sharp decline from the 2022/2023 peaks. [6]
What we could not confirm
- It is unclear whether Shabana Mahmood meant to compare the latest figure with the 2023 peak, which would give a fall of about 82%, because she did not state a baseline.
How we checked
We looked at the original report of the claim, official ONS migration bulletins and blog posts, a BBC news report, and independent analysis from the Migration Observatory. We compared the most recent annual figures with the previous year and with the 2023 peak. We reviewed 6 relevant sources.
Sources
- [1]www.eastrennews.co.uk · Mahmood concedes immigration overhaul savings will fall short of £10bn estimate
- [2]ons.gov.uk · Long-term international migration, provisional - Office for National Statistics
- [3]bbc.com · UK net migration drops to 171,000 - lowest since Covid pandemic · May 21, 2026
- [4]blog.ons.gov.uk · Net migration continues to fall | National Statistical · May 21, 2026
- [5]ons.gov.uk · Improving long-term international migration statistics, updating our methods and estimates - Office for National Statistics · November 1, 2025
- [6]migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk · Net migration to the UK - Migration Observatory
- [7]Photo: Richard Townshend / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0
Have evidence we missed?
If you know of a source that confirms or contradicts this claim, send us the link. We review every submission and update fact checks when new evidence changes the picture.
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