Fact checkPoliticsPublished November 3, 2026

“In the most recent year, the United States recorded its largest ever drop in murder rate, reaching the lowest level in the past 125 years.” — Donald Trump. Our verdict: Unverified.

“In the most recent year, the United States recorded its largest ever drop in murder rate, reaching the lowest level in the past 125 years.” — Donald Trump. Our verdict: Unverified.
Donald TrumpSpeechNovember 3, 2026

Donald Trump made the claim in a speech on crime prevention and enforcement in Garden City, New York, on 14 August 2026, according to the Roll Call transcript of the event.

Our verdict

Unverified

The available figures back part of this claim: the FBI says the 2025 murder rate fell 18.1% and matched the lowest level since its national estimates began in 1936. But the FBI's own data only goes back to 1936, so we cannot confirm the 'largest ever' drop or a '125-year low'.

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What we found

The FBI's 2025 crime data shows a real and striking fall in murder. Its press release and its 2025 crime report both put the drop at 18.1% and the murder rate at 4.1 per 100,000, tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest since the FBI's national estimates began in 1936. The FBI also describes the fall in violent crime as the largest year-to-year decline since 1936. The White House made a similar argument in January 2026, saying the murder rate was the lowest since at least 1900 and the biggest one-year drop on record, but it pointed to an unnamed report rather than published figures. Because every official source we found limits its comparison to the period from 1936 onwards, we cannot check the parts of the claim that reach back further. We could not find enough public evidence to confirm or refute the claim as stated, so our verdict is unverifiable. If you have data covering murder rates before 1936, we would like to see it.

The evidence

3 of 6 sources support the claim; none contradict it.

Contradict 0Support 3Background 3
When each source was published
whitehouse.gov · Jan 2026 · backgroundfbi.gov · May 2026 · backgroundcde.ucr.cjis.gov · Aug 2026 · supports the claimfbi.gov · Aug 2026 · supports the claimfbi.gov · Aug 2026 · supports the claimcde.ucr.cjis.gov · Oct 2026 · backgroundJan 2026Oct 2026
  • Supports the claim

    The FBI's 2025 figures show an 18.1% fall in murder and non-negligent manslaughter, and a murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 tied with 1955 and 1956 as the lowest since its national estimates began in 1936. [1]

  • Supports the claim

    The FBI's detailed 2025 data release confirms the largest year-to-year decline in the violent crime rate since 1936 and the same record-low murder rate. [2]

  • Supports the claim

    The official 2025 Uniform Crime Reporting summary states that the 2025 murder rate is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest since FBI estimates began in 1936. [3]

  • Background

    Preliminary FBI data for 2025 showed an 18.1% decrease in murder and non-negligent manslaughter, which the FBI Director called the largest decrease since 1937. [4]

  • Background

    The White House said in January 2026 that the 2025 murder rate was the lowest since at least 1900 and the biggest one-year drop in recorded history, but it cited an unnamed report rather than published statistics. [5]

  • Background

    The FBI's Crime Data Explorer shows the reported murder rate fell 18.2% in the 12 months from July 2025 to June 2026, a similar-sized fall but over a different period and without a historical comparison. [6]

What we could not confirm

  • Whether the 2025 fall was the largest ever recorded, because FBI national murder rate estimates only go back to 1936 and we found no data covering earlier years.
  • Whether the 2025 murder rate was the lowest in 125 years, because no source in our research covers the period from 1900 to 1935.
  • The exact wording of the claim in the speech transcript, which does not include the specific figures quoted.

How we checked

We looked at FBI crime statistics releases and the official 2025 Uniform Crime Reporting summary, the FBI's Crime Data Explorer, a White House statement, and the transcript of the speech. We compared what each source actually measured and how far back its historical comparisons went. We reviewed 7 relevant sources.

Sources

  1. [1]fbi.gov · Violent Crime Falls at Historic Rate, New FBI Data Show | Federal Bureau of Investigation · August 24, 2026
  2. [2]fbi.gov · FBI Releases 2025 Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics | Federal Bureau of Investigation · August 14, 2026
  3. [3]cde.ucr.cjis.gov · UCR Summary of Reproted Crimes in the Nation, 2025 · August 1, 2026
  4. [4]fbi.gov · FBI Releases Historic Early Look at Annual Crime Data · May 13, 2026
  5. [5]whitehouse.gov · ICYMI: Murder Rate Plunges to 125-Year Low as President Trump Restores Law and Order · January 22, 2026
  6. [6]cde.ucr.cjis.gov · CDE · October 15, 2026
  7. [7]Original statement · Speech · November 3, 2026
  8. [8]Photo: Daniel Torok / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

Help us check this claim

We could not find enough public evidence to confirm or refute this claim. If you know of an official record, dataset, transcript or report that settles it, send us the link. We review every submission and update this fact check when the evidence changes the picture.

Measured Take updates fact checks when new evidence emerges. Corrections are noted on the page.

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