“The UK's loss of a returns agreement with EU countries is the cause of the small boats crisis.” — Andy Burnham. Our verdict: Unverified.
Andy Burnham made the claim in an article published by The Independent about freedom of movement and the UK in 2026.
Our verdict
Unverified
We could not find enough public evidence to confirm or refute the claim that the loss of a returns agreement with EU countries is the cause of the small boats crisis. The evidence shows the UK did lose its Dublin-type returns framework after Brexit, but it does not establish that this loss caused the rise in small boat crossings.
Know something that settles it? Send us evidenceWhat we found
The claim was made by Andy Burnham, and we can confirm he said it. We can also confirm that the UK lost its Dublin-type returns framework after Brexit, which limited its ability to return small boat arrivals to EU partners, as the Migration Observatory explains. The summary of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement shows the new relationship does not include a returns agreement, which supports that point.
However, the wider claim that this loss is the cause of the small boats crisis is not backed by the evidence we found. The Migration Observatory identifies several factors behind the rise in small boat crossings, including changes in enforcement and the professionalisation of smuggling networks. It does not say the lost returns agreement was the sole or main cause, and it does not put a number on how much it contributed.
Because the evidence confirms part of the background but does not test the causal claim, we rate the claim as unverifiable. We could not find enough public evidence to confirm or refute it. If you have evidence that bears on this, please send it to us.
The evidence
3 of 4 sources support the claim; none contradict it.
- Background
The article reports that Andy Burnham said the small boats crisis is linked to the loss of a returns agreement with EU countries. [1]
- Supports the claim
The Migration Observatory states that the UK lost its Dublin-type returns framework after Brexit, which limited its capacity to return small boat arrivals to EU partners. [2]
- Supports the claim
The Migration Observatory identifies multiple factors behind the rise in small boat crossings, including enforcement changes and the professionalisation of smuggling, rather than attributing it solely to the loss of a returns agreement. [3]
- Supports the claim
The summary of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement does not include a returns agreement, confirming the UK is no longer part of the Dublin Regulation framework. [4]
What we could not confirm
- Whether the loss of the returns agreement is the cause of the small boats crisis, rather than one of several contributing factors.
- How much the lost returns agreement contributed compared with other factors such as enforcement changes and smuggling networks.
- The precise legal instrument that was lost and the exact date it ended.
How we checked
We looked at the article where the claim was made, commentary and briefings from the Migration Observatory on small boat crossings and UK-EU cooperation, and the UK government summary of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement. We reviewed 4 relevant sources.
Sources
- [1]www.the-independent.com · What would freedom of movement mean for the UK in 2026?
- [2]migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk · The UK‑France small boats returns deal and options for further cooperation with the EU
- [3]migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk · People crossing the English Channel in small boats - Migration Observatory
- [4]assets.publishing.service.gov.uk · UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT Summary · December 1, 2020
- [5]Photo: Prime Minister's Office / Wikimedia Commons, OGL 3
Help us check this claim
We could not find enough public evidence to confirm or refute this claim. If you know of an official record, dataset, transcript or report that settles it, send us the link. We review every submission and update this fact check when the evidence changes the picture.
Measured Take updates fact checks when new evidence emerges. Corrections are noted on the page.
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