NATO and Ukraine's Model No. 13: the AI cleared to track Russian drones

NATO's Allied Command Transformation and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have jointly developed two AI-based tools for Ukraine's Defence Forces, presented this month during a three-day seminar in Vilnius, Lithuania.

The two models carry code names rather than descriptions. Model No. 13 forecasts enemy drone activity near the line of contact, drawing on historical data, weather conditions, and the current battlefield situation. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, it can determine with a high degree of probability the intensity, locations, timeframes, and types of UAVs deployed. It has been validated against real-world datasets and is ready for integration into the Armed Forces of Ukraine's situational awareness systems.

Model No. 32 is at an earlier stage. It assists with planning Ukrainian artillery operations and has been handed to the Ukrainian military for testing.

What makes the project notable is less the individual models than the machinery behind them. JATEC is a standing NATO-Ukraine institution built to provide analytical, educational, and training capabilities, and to fold lessons from Russia's war into strategy, policy, doctrine, tactics, and operations. The AI work runs through that channel: a transformation command and an active military co-developing predictive software, with one tool already cleared for field systems and another under evaluation.

If the models perform as described, they could shorten decision cycles and improve targeting and force protection for Ukrainian units. That is a conditional claim, not a demonstrated one. Model No. Model No. 32 remains in testing.

The direction of travel is clearer than the results. AI-enabled battlefield planning is moving from experimentation toward integration inside an active conflict, and it is doing so through a working-level NATO-Ukraine institution rather than a headline announcement.