Lazio's first-half mastery undone by second-half disappearance as Milan snatch 2-2

Lazio and Milan played out a 2-2 draw at the Stadio Olimpico that told two entirely different stories across the halves. The hosts were clinical before the break, converting two of four big chances into a 2-0 lead backed by 2.04 expected goals. After the interval they barely crossed the halfway line, mustering a single shot and one touch in the opposition box while Milan turned 66 per cent possession into a Diego Moreira double that levelled the tie in the space of three minutes.

Lazio lined up in a 4-3-3 that invited Milan's 3-4-2-1 onto them, then struck on the transition. Matteo Cancellieri opened the scoring in the 10th minute, finishing left-footed after Mattia Zaccagni's cut-back — a chance worth just 0.30 xG but taken with precision. Tijjani Noslin doubled the advantage in the 39th minute, heading home from close range (0.81 xG) to give Lazio a lead that flattered their territorial share: 39 per cent possession, seven shots each, but five on target for the hosts against two for the visitors.

The underlying numbers were stark. Lazio generated 2.04 xG entirely from open play, created four big chances and recorded ten touches in the Milan box. Milan's 0.47 xG came mostly from set-play situations (0.39), with Samuel Chukwueze quiet on the right flank (0.16 xG, no shots on target). Mario Gila, deployed at centre-back, even chipped in with 0.30 xG from attacking set pieces.

The pattern flipped completely after the break. Lazio's possession dropped to 28 per cent, their opposition-half passes fell from 68 to 25, and they managed one shot, one touch in the box and 0.02 xG across 45 minutes. Milan, by contrast, posted 0.63 xG, nine shots, 19 box touches and 135 passes in the final third.

The equaliser arrived through Milan's left side. Christian Pulisic fed Diego Moreira for a low left-footed finish in the 65th minute (0.08 xG). Two minutes later Adrien Rabiot found the same player in a near-identical position, and Moreira repeated the dose (0.09 xG). Both goals came from open play as Milan's wing-backs pinned Lazio's wide men and the midfield trio of Rabiot, Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders controlled the tempo.

Lazio's substitutes — introduced to stem the tide — could not reverse the flow. The hosts finished with 260 accurate passes at 82 per cent against Milan's 571 at 91 per cent, a disparity that widened in the second half (100 at 78 per cent vs 301 at 92 per cent).

Noslin's goal and 1.06 xG made him Lazio's most threatening outlet, while Zaccagni's 0.59 xG and assist underlined his creative role. For Milan, Moreira's brace from 0.17 combined xG represented ruthless finishing, and Pulisic's assist plus 67 touches in the final third drove the comeback. Chukwueze struggled to impose himself (0.16 xG, dispossessed three times), while Gila's aerial presence at both ends (0.30 xG, five duels won) was a rare positive in a Lazio defence that conceded 1.09 xG.

The result leaves both sides with a point that feels like two dropped for Lazio and one gained for Milan — a verdict written in the 2.02 xG swing between halves.