Napoli's xG dominance undone by Fiorentina resilience as set-piece edge yields only a point

Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli. The scoreline suggests parity; the underlying numbers tell a different story. Napoli generated 1.45 expected goals to Fiorentina's 0.94, fashioned four big chances to the hosts' one, and controlled 58% of possession at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Yet a single set-piece routine and a moment of individual improvisation produced a draw that left Napoli manager Max Allegri visibly agitated. "Se non usciamo arrabbiati oggi dopo il pareggio con la Fiorentina è un problema. Non basta avere possesso e occasioni," he told DAZN afterward.

Napoli lined up in a 4-2-3-1 that quickly settled into a rhythm of patient circulation, while Fiorentina's 4-3-3 looked to disrupt and counter. The visitors' territorial superiority — 56% possession in the opening 45 — translated into an 0.83 xG haul, 0.73 of it from open play. They forced two big chances and tested the goalkeeper twice, whereas Fiorentina managed six shots but only one on target and zero big chances.

The breakthrough arrived in the 23rd minute from a corner. Matteo Politano's delivery found Billy Gilmour unmarked at the near post, and the Scot guided a right-footed finish past the keeper. The chance carried just 0.08 xG, a reminder that set pieces can defy probability models. Gilmour's goal was Napoli's only shot on target before the interval, but their structure — 263 accurate passes at 90% — kept Fiorentina pinned.

Fiorentina emerged with greater urgency. Their touches in the opposition box jumped from ten in the first half to 22 in the second, and they doubled their shot count (11 to 6) while matching Napoli three shots on target apiece. The equaliser came in the 51st minute, a play that bore little resemblance to the visitors' controlled approach. Cher Ndour slipped a pass to Álex Jiménez on the edge of the area; the full-back, with no obvious shooting lane, unleashed a right-footed strike that deflected past the goalkeeper. The xG: 0.02. It was Fiorentina's only big chance of the match.

Napoli's response was muted. Their second-half xG dropped to 0.62, with just 0.56 from open play. Franco Mastantuono (0.14 xG) and Mathías Olivera (0.67 xG across the game) had moments, but the visitors could not convert their sustained pressure — 222 accurate passes at 87% in the half — into a winner. Fiorentina's three yellow cards to Napoli's zero hinted at the hosts' willingness to disrupt rhythm.

The match turned on two low-probability finishes. Gilmour's header from a corner (0.08 xG) and Jiménez's speculative drive (0.02 xG) accounted for the only goals, while Napoli's four big chances — including Olivera's 0.67 xG accumulation — went begging. Fiorentina's 17 shots to 13 and 32 box touches to 24 reflect a side that found space in dangerous areas but lacked the final precision. Napoli's 485 accurate passes at 89% and 252 opposition-half passes underscore a control that never fully translated into clear-cut opportunities after the interval.

Substitutions did not shift the narrative. Both managers used their benches, but the xG flow remained stable: Napoli 0.62, Fiorentina 0.63 in the second half. The draw leaves Napoli with a statistical performance that typically yields three points, and Allegri's post-match frustration captured the disconnect between process and outcome.