US sanctions waiver lapse threatens India's Chabahar port project

TL;DR: The US sanctions waiver for India's work at Iran's Chabahar port expired on Sunday with no sign of renewal, putting at risk New Delhi's $120 million investment and its strategic trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Context: India has viewed Chabahar as a gateway to bypass Pakistan and reach landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia. The port also counters China's influence at nearby Gwadar and serves as the southern node of the International North‑South Transport Corridor linking Russia to India via Iran.

Key Facts: The waiver allowing Indian entities to operate at Chabahar lapsed on Sunday, and the US has not signaled any renewal. India has already committed at least $120 million to equip the Shahid Beheshti terminal at the site. India's Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal noted that the ongoing regional conflict complicates the Chabahar situation.

What It Means: Without the waiver, Indian firms could face secondary sanctions for continuing work, jeopardizing the $120 million outlay and future plans to expand the terminal. New Delhi may need to seek alternative routes or diplomatic relief to keep the corridor viable. The next watchpoint is whether Washington will issue a new exemption or if India will scale back its Chabahar commitments.