UN Warns US‑Israeli Iran Conflict Could Push 30 Million Into Poverty

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one‑third of the world’s fertilizer supplies. Any blockage there threatens crop yields in regions that rely on imported nutrients, raising the risk of food insecurity. The conflict began on February 28 and has already strained global markets.

Alexander De Croo, administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, said that even if the fighting stopped today, its effects would push more than 30 million people back into poverty. He also noted that the Iran conflict has already reduced global gross domestic product by 0.5 % to 0.8 %. Additionally, one‑third of global fertilizer supplies travel through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now caught in the US‑Iran standoff.

Disrupted fertilizer flows could lower agricultural output, especially in South Asia and Africa, where many countries depend on Hormuz‑transited shipments. The GDP dip reflects lost productivity and higher energy costs, which together amplify poverty risks. Humanitarian aid routes are also strained, limiting relief for vulnerable populations.