Burnham Faces Task of Selling Devolution to Voters Amid Tax Concerns

Andy Burnham entered office last month and immediately placed devolution at the top of his agenda, pledging the largest transfer of authority from Westminster to local areas in a generation.

His promise includes giving mayors and local councils new fiscal powers, such as the ability to set a share of personal income tax and business taxes.

To gauge public sentiment, Ipsos North in Manchester conducted a survey last month of UK adults.

The survey found that three in four respondents said they are satisfied with their neighbourhood, a figure that has remained stable over the past four years.

When asked whether they would support or oppose giving local authorities or regional mayors the power to set a portion of personal income tax, 24 percent said they would support it while 46 percent said they would oppose it.

More than half of respondents, 53 percent, believed their personal tax bill would rise if local bodies gained that power, compared with 8 percent who thought it would fall and 27 percent who expected no change.

A similar pattern emerged for business taxes: 35 percent supported local authority control, 33 percent opposed it, and the remainder were neutral or unsure.

Despite the skepticism on tax, the survey revealed potential upsides that could be highlighted.

Thirty‑eight percent thought locally raised and spent taxes would be used more effectively in their area than they are now, while 26 percent thought they would be used less effectively.

Thirty‑four percent believed greater fiscal devolution would improve local public‑service outcomes, versus 28 percent who thought outcomes would worsen.

Around a third of respondents neither supported nor opposed the tax questions, indicating a substantial group that lacks enough information to form a view.

Ipsos notes that this uncertainty presents an opportunity for the new ministry to explain who would pay, what the money would fund, and how benefits would be felt locally.

Burnham can point to his record in Greater Manchester as proof that devolution works, but he must convince voters elsewhere that the same model can deliver tangible improvements for them.

The core task, therefore, is not to overcome outright opposition but to address practical concerns about cost, accountability, and visible results.

The data show that while a clear majority are wary of higher personal taxes, a notable share see potential gains in effectiveness and service quality if decisions stay closer to home.

This split suggests that the persuasion task is less about overcoming ideological resistance and more about demonstrating concrete fiscal benefits that outweigh perceived cost increases.

For Burnham, the challenge extends beyond informing voters about who will pay; it requires showing how extra local revenue will translate into projects they can observe, such as upgraded transport, schools, or health facilities.

The stability of neighbourhood satisfaction over four years indicates a baseline of contentment that devolution could build upon, provided the link between local control and tangible improvement is made clear.

Ipsos North’s role as a long‑standing observer of devolution trends gives the survey added weight, highlighting that the observed patterns are not fleeting but reflect enduring attitudes.

Consequently, the next weeks will likely see Burnham’s team crafting messages that pair tax proposals with specific local spending plans, aiming to shift the undecided third toward support.

If successful, the strategy could turn the current skepticism into a mandate for the most extensive devolution package the UK has seen in decades.