US CLARITY Act Gains Momentum After Stablecoin Yield Rules Finalized, 55% Chance of 2026 Passage

The CLARITY Act aims to resolve regulatory uncertainty that has hampered crypto firms’ ability to operate alongside traditional banks. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks released the final text addressing the stablecoin yield dispute, a point of contention over whether such yields would undermine bank competitiveness. The legislation now awaits markup by the Senate Banking Committee, which could schedule it as early as the week of May 11.

Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, said on X, “It’s time to get CLARITY done,” after the yield rules were published. He argued that the measure protects Americans’ ability to earn rewards based on real usage of crypto platforms.

The new SEC 404 provision prohibits crypto firms from paying “any form of interest or yield” to customers solely for holding stablecoins, treating such payments like bank deposits. However, firms may still offer rewards tied to bona fide activities, such as using a platform for transactions, providing liquidity, or participating in governance.

Polymarket traders currently assign a 55% probability to the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026, up nine percentage points in the last 24 hours. This prediction reflects growing confidence that the stablecoin yield hurdle has been cleared.

In the market, Coinbase (COIN) holds a market capitalization of approximately $42 billion and its shares rose 3.2% following the announcement. The leading stablecoin USDC maintains a circulating supply of about $28 billion, representing roughly 0.6% of the global $4.6 trillion money‑market fund complex. For reference, the average U.S. bank savings account yields around 0.45% APY, far below the yields crypto platforms previously offered on idle stablecoins.

By banning interest on idle stablecoins, the rule pushes crypto firms to design yield products that require actual network usage, potentially increasing on‑chain activity. Banks retain their advantage in offering risk‑free returns, but crypto platforms can still incentivize participation through activity‑based rewards, which may preserve user engagement without directly competing on deposit‑like yields.

The clearer framework could reduce legal risk for firms and encourage institutional participation, though opposition from banking groups may intensify as markup approaches. Analysts note that any further restrictions on yields could shift capital toward traditional fixed‑income products, affecting crypto‑linked investment flows.

Investors should watch for the Senate Banking Committee’s markup schedule, any amendments to the yield language, and subsequent price moves in COIN and major stablecoins as the legislative process unfolds.