Stablecoin Yield Text Clears Path, Polymarket Shows 55% CLARITY Act Odds

*TL;DR: Stablecoin yield rules cleared, pushing Polymarket’s CLARITY Act probability to 55% and setting up a Senate Banking Committee markup as early as the week of May 11.

Context The CLARITY Act aims to give U.S. crypto firms a clear regulatory framework, especially around stablecoin rewards. A long‑standing dispute centered on whether interest‑like yields on stablecoins threaten banking competition. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks released the final text, narrowing the gap between banks and crypto firms.

Key Facts - Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Faryar Shirzad, posted on X that “it’s time to get CLARITY done,” after the stablecoin yield language was published. - The new provision, titled “SEC 404. Prohibiting interest and yield on payment stablecoins,” bars crypto firms from paying interest solely for holding stablecoins, but permits rewards linked to genuine platform activity. - Polymarket, a crypto prediction market, now lists a 55% chance the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, up 9 percentage points in the last 24 hours. - Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn said the release suggests the Senate Banking Committee could schedule a markup—formal amendment discussion—during the week of May 11, though he warned banks may intensify opposition. - Industry leaders responded quickly: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong urged lawmakers to “mark it up,” while Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz praised the removal of risk‑free yield on dollars outside banks. - Senators are vocal: Bernie Moreno expects the bill to finish by month‑end, and Cynthia Lummis called the moment “now or never.”

What It Means The stablecoin yield clarification removes the most visible regulatory hurdle, aligning crypto rewards with traditional banking restrictions while preserving user incentives tied to network usage. With the Senate Banking Committee likely to convene a markup session within days, the bill could move from draft to amendment stage faster than earlier forecasts. Market participants are watching the CLARITY Act’s trajectory closely; a successful markup could tighten compliance requirements for firms like Coinbase (COIN) and potentially affect stablecoin market caps, which currently sit near $120 billion.

Looking Ahead Track the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule and any bank‑driven lobbying efforts; a shift in odds on Polymarket will signal how quickly the CLARITY Act may clear the legislative hurdle.