UK Government Split: AI Data Centre Power Forecasts Differ Tenfold

Context The UK aims to become a global AI hub while also cutting carbon emissions to meet international climate goals. The Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) drives the AI superpower agenda, whereas the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) oversees the carbon budget and net‑zero delivery. Their differing forecasts reveal a lack of coordination between these priorities.

Key Facts DSIT projects that AI data centres will require 6 gigawatts of electricity by 2030. DESNZ estimates the same sector will consume less than 0.6 gigawatts by 2030, which is under a tenth of DSIT’s figure. Tim Squirrell, head of strategy at the NGO Foxglove, said the government’s cluelessness over the environmental impact of data centres would be laughable if it were not so alarming. DESNZ notes that data‑centre emissions are included in its modelling for carbon budget 7, which is due this summer.

What It Means The ten‑fold discrepancy suggests that either the AI expansion plan or the climate pathway is based on unrealistic assumptions. If the higher DSIT figure proves correct, the UK’s grid would need additional generation or demand‑management measures to avoid undermining its net‑zero commitments. Conversely, if the lower DESNZ estimate is accurate, the lower DESNZ estimate may overstate the AI superpower ambition. Policymakers will need to reconcile these views before finalising investment zones and grid upgrades.

To watch next, monitor the release of carbon budget 7 this summer and any revised DSIT forecasts that may follow further scrutiny.