South Korea’s 2024 Growth Forecast Rises to 2.6% on Semiconductor Surge

TL;DR: South Korean economists now expect 2.6% GDP growth in 2024, with the semiconductor boom offsetting inflation risks.

Context The Bank of Korea will announce its monetary policy decision on May 28, amid rising oil prices and a strong dollar that have pushed inflation expectations higher. A recent poll of 13 domestic and international economists shows a sharp upward revision from the 2.0% forecast made a month earlier.

Key Facts Four analysts identified 2.6% as the most common growth estimate, making it the modal forecast. Two experts projected 2.8%, while another two saw the economy expanding at 3.0%.

Park Sanghyun of iM Investment & Securities highlighted a “stronger‑than‑expected semiconductor supercycle,” raising his own outlook to 2.8% after accounting for fiscal stimulus. Semiconductors represented roughly 28% of South Korea’s total exports in the first quarter, directly contributing about 0.4 percentage points to net export growth.

The first‑quarter GDP surprise—1.7% growth versus expectations—has also nudged forecasts upward. Analysts note that the semiconductor sector alone may account for half of the annual growth, adding roughly 1.3 percentage points to the total.

What It Means The revised outlook suggests the Bank of Korea will likely adjust its growth projection into the mid‑2% range, reinforcing a policy stance focused on price stability rather than stimulus. While high oil prices and a strong dollar keep inflation pressures alive, the resilience of semiconductor exports provides a buffer that could sustain the economy through the year.

Looking Ahead Watch the Bank of Korea’s May 28 decision for clues on how policymakers will balance inflation risks against the semiconductor‑driven growth momentum.