Reform’s Support Slips: Polls Drop from 30% to 26% as Anti-Reform Sentiment Rises to 38%

Context Reform had been riding a wave of poll leads for over a year, positioning itself as a potential kingmaker in the next general election. The party’s leadership, led by Nigel Farage, has framed recent council victories as proof of growing strength. Yet internal warnings and rising opposition hint at a more fragile foundation.

Key Facts Reform’s support dropped from 30% to 26% between the last and this year’s local elections. Thirty‑eight percent of voters say they would vote against Reform, a nine‑point increase from November. Veteran pollster Peter Kellner warned that securing 1,400 England council seats would be a "disaster" for Reform; the party actually won 1,453 seats.

What It Means The decline in positive support combined with a rise in active opposition suggests Reform’s base is eroding and tactical voting against it is growing. If the current trajectory continues, the party could struggle to reach the threshold needed for a parliamentary majority in 2029. Watch for how Reform responds to internal criticism and whether its leadership can reverse the slide before the next national vote.