One Nation Leverages 27% Vote Surge to Demand Climate Department Scrapped

TL;DR: One Nation, matching Labor at 27% of the primary vote, will back a Coalition government only if the Department of Climate Change is eliminated.

Context Barnaby Joyce announced that his party is prepared to supply confidence and supply to a future Coalition government, but only under strict policy conditions. The demand centers on dismantling the Department of Climate Change, which Joyce describes as a burden that has failed to alter climate outcomes and has strained fuel and electricity markets.

Key Facts - In a Sky News/YouGov poll conducted April 14‑21, One Nation reached 27% of the primary vote, tying Labor for the first time in the party’s history. - The Coalition’s primary vote sits at roughly 20%, its lowest level on record. - Joyce told Sky News’ Sunday Agenda that One Nation would not become a formal coalition partner; instead, it would offer supply and confidence in exchange for specific policy concessions, foremost the abolition of the climate department. - Joyce framed the demand as non‑negotiable, stating the department “has done so much damage” and “needs to be gone.”

What It Means One Nation’s surge reshapes the balance of power ahead of the 2028 federal election. With the Coalition hovering near a historic low, Joyce’s leverage could force the Liberal‑National alliance to negotiate on climate policy, a traditionally contentious issue. If the Coalition concedes, it may secure a parliamentary majority without formally sharing cabinet seats. Conversely, rejecting the demand could leave the Coalition in a minority position, potentially prompting an early election or a minority government supported by other cross‑benchers.

The next poll will reveal whether One Nation’s bargaining chip translates into tangible policy change or merely a temporary boost in leverage. Watch for the Coalition’s response as the election cycle intensifies.