Liberal Party Holds Nepean in 2026 By‑Election as Labor Records Zero First‑Preference Votes

*TL;DR: Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh retained Nepean with 59% of the two‑candidate preferred vote; the Australian Labor Party logged zero first‑preference votes.

Context The Nepean by‑election took place on 2 May 2026, with 50,910 registered voters. First‑preference ballots were counted from all 16 polling centres, covering 79.2% of enrolments. Preference distribution was completed in 14 centres, leaving Rosebud and postal votes pending.

Key Facts Anthony Marsh of the Liberal Party received 6,638 two‑candidate preferred votes, translating to 59.0% of the final count and a 2.3‑point swing toward the Liberals from the previous election. Independent candidate Tracee Hutchison trailed with 4,610 votes (41.0%).

First‑preference tallies show Marsh leading with 14,821 votes (38.5% of the total), a drop of 9.6 points compared with the last contest. Darren Hercus, running under the One Nation banner, captured 9,507 votes (24.7%). Hutchison, listed as an independent, earned 8,206 first‑preference votes (21.3%). Green Party candidate Sianan Healy secured 3,581 votes (9.3%). Smaller parties and independents together contributed the remaining votes, while 1,835 ballots (4.5%) were informal and rejected.

The Australian Labor Party (ALP) recorded zero first‑preference votes, a dramatic decline of 32.6 percentage points from the prior election. No other party or candidate listed under “Other” received votes, also reflecting a 10.5‑point drop.

What It Means The result confirms the Liberal Party’s hold on Nepean despite a modest loss in primary support. Marsh’s two‑candidate preferred margin suggests that preference flows from minor parties favored the Liberal candidate over the independent challenger. The ALP’s complete absence from the first‑preference count signals a severe local organizational failure or strategic withdrawal, raising questions about the party’s capacity to contest future contests in the district.

Looking ahead, the pending Rosebud and postal vote counts could adjust the final two‑candidate preferred percentages, though they are unlikely to overturn the Liberal victory. Observers will watch how the ALP rebuilds its local presence and whether the Liberal swing sustains in the next general election.