ERCOT Solar to Surpass Coal in 2026, Led by 837‑MW Project

TL;DR: Solar power in ERCOT is projected to generate 78 billion kilowatt‑hours in 2026, surpassing coal’s 60 billion kilowatt‑hours. The milestone follows a March 2025 monthly crossover and is bolstered by the upcoming 837‑megawatt Tehuacana Creek 1 solar‑plus‑storage project.

Over the past five years solar’s share of ERCOT generation grew from 4 % to 12 %, while coal’s share dropped from 19 % to 13 %. This change reflects steady solar capacity additions that help meet fast‑rising electricity demand.

ERCOT’s peak load has risen roughly 2 % annually, driven by new industrial projects and population growth.

The Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS project, rated at 837 megawatts (MW), will be the largest solar photovoltaic facility to enter service in ERCOT next year. The project includes a battery energy storage system (BESS) with a capacity of 400 megawatt‑hours, allowing excess solar to be stored for later use.

Analysts will monitor whether solar maintains its monthly advantage through most of 2027, except January and December. The performance of the Tehuacana Creek 1 battery storage component will be watched for its ability to smooth output during peak demand.

Policy makers and market participants will also watch how the shifting mix affects wholesale electricity prices and grid resilience as Texas demand keeps climbing. Reduced coal use is expected to lower carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector, aligning with state climate goals.