Canadian Visits to US Cities Plunge 42% Under Trump‑Era Policies

Context A University of Toronto research team used anonymized cell‑phone signals to track movements of Canadian devices between April 2024 and March 2026. The method captures short‑term visits, freight traffic and temporary residents, offering a broader picture than traditional border‑crossing statistics.

Key Facts - Median visits from Canada to U.S. metros declined about 42% compared with the previous year. - Official border‑crossing data reported a roughly 25% decline for the same period. - The gap may reflect the tool’s ability to count freight trips and Canadians who left the U.S. after living there temporarily. - Sharp drops appeared in New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Las Vegas, Walt Disney World and Florida winter‑recreation spots. - High‑tech hubs such as San Francisco and Houston saw reductions in both tourism and business travel, suggesting broader economic uncertainty. - Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto, highlighted the decline in travel to Grand Rapids, Michigan, a city historically linked to Ontario’s auto industry. She noted that U.S. tariffs on Canadian vehicles have cut back the once‑frequent cross‑border work trips. - Canadian government data show a 25% fall in return trips from the U.S. in 2025, while U.S. trips to Canada slipped 7.5%.

What It Means The disparity between cell‑phone data and border counts indicates that Canadians are avoiding U.S. urban centers more than official figures suggest. Tariff‑related trade friction, heightened immigration enforcement and political rhetoric appear to be reshaping travel patterns. Border towns that depend on cross‑border shoppers and commuters face sharper revenue losses, while U.S. cities lose both tourist dollars and business‑related travel.

Looking Ahead Watch for updated mobility reports as the tool expands to cover post‑2026 trends and for policy shifts that could either restore confidence or deepen the divide.