Britain's local elections set to expose historic lows for Labour and Conservatives

Local elections across England, Scotland and Wales will decide who controls billions of pounds in council budgets and shape the fortunes of party leaders. In recent years the ballot paper has grown more crowded, with the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the Scottish National Party and numerous independents all competing in many wards. At the same time, both major parties have suffered simultaneous drops in popularity, a situation rarely seen in postwar Britain.

Professor Sir John Curtice warned that the Conservative‑Labour duopoly faces its biggest challenge since the 1920s, with records expected to fall and unprecedented political circumstances. Labour secured a large parliamentary majority despite recording the lowest vote share ever for a governing party with an overall majority. The Conservatives received less than 30% of the vote in a general election for the first time since 1832.

If the projected declines materialise, Labour’s grip on power could weaken even though it holds a Commons majority, while the Conservatives may struggle to regain ground in traditional strongholds. The rise of smaller parties suggests voters are increasingly willing to split tickets or back protest options, which could reshape policy debates at the local level and influence national strategies ahead of the next general election.