Boundary Redraw Shifts Edinburgh Southern to SNP in Notional Vote

The independent boundary commission concluded its third review of Holyrood’s constituencies and regions. This process ensures each Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) represents roughly 60,000 voters. Scotland's population is shifting, primarily moving east along the central belt, necessitating these regular electoral map adjustments.

Population movements show distinct trends across the country. The Inverclyde constituency, located on the west coast, experienced a nearly 9 percent population decline between 1998 and 2021. This required its boundaries to expand eastward, incorporating areas like Port Glasgow and Kilmacolm to maintain voter numbers. Such expansions ensure the local MSP represents a similar number of constituents as colleagues elsewhere.

In contrast, the East Lothian constituency, a growing commuter hub for Edinburgh, now contains over 88,000 voters. This number significantly exceeds the target of approximately 60,000 per seat. Consequently, East Lothian has shed towns like Musselburgh and Tranent in recent boundary reviews, with Tranent forming part of a new seat with eastern Edinburgh. The constituency also received a new name: East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs.

Further complicating the electoral map are vast, sparsely populated areas like the Highlands. While the overall region is large, its capital, Inverness, is growing. This led to Inverness and Nairn losing Grantown-on-Spey, which moved into the already vast Skye, Badenoch and Lochaber constituency. This change balances voter numbers but significantly increases the geographic size of the latter seat.

Under the newly drawn boundaries, a notional 2021 election result for Edinburgh Southern shows it would have been won by the SNP. A notional result calculates how a previous election would have unfolded if the new boundaries were already in place. This specific change reclassifies the seat's political leaning from Labour to SNP.

This redrawing means if Labour retains Edinburgh Southern in the next election, it will count as a “gain” against the notional SNP win. Conversely, an SNP victory would register as a “hold” for the party. Such shifts significantly affect campaigning strategies for all parties in the capital. The changes also impact other Edinburgh seats. Edinburgh Central now shows Labour leapfrogging the Conservatives into second place, while Edinburgh Northern becomes a more attractive prospect for the Lib Dems.

These boundary adjustments reshape the electoral landscape and challenge established political dynamics. Watch how parties adapt their campaigns to the new constituency lines in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election.