GOV.UK Prime Minister speeches and remarks
Andy Burnham, in PM statement to the House of Commons (1 September 2026), states small boat crossings over the summer have halved compared to last year and that the year to date is the lowest for crossings since 2021.
SourceSteps used: Searched live Home Office data via major UK outlets (Guardian, Independent, London Economic, Yahoo) for June-August 2026 small boat arrivals; cross-checked year-to-date totals against 2021-2025 historical figures; looked for the 'lowest since' framing used by ministers and officials.
The London Economic reports 7,416 arrivals between June 1 and August 30, down 46% on the same period in 2025. AOL repeats the 46% figure. This is close to but not exactly a halving.
SourceYahoo/Independent reports 14,526 arrivals by August 1, 2026 — 43% below 2025, 14% below 2024, and slightly below 2023 (14,732). This makes 2026 the lowest year-to-date since at least 2023, supporting a 'lowest since 2021/2022' framing.
SourceLondon Economic reports 11,884 arrivals Jan-June 2026, down 41% on 2025 and down 7% on 2022. June 2026 (2,742) was the lowest June since 2021, which lends indirect support to the 'since 2021' framing for at least the June component.
SourceHome Secretary Shabana Mahmood said June, July and August recorded the lowest number of small boat crossings in seven years (i.e., since 2019), with the lowest number of people since 2020. This is a stronger historical claim than 'lowest since 2021'.
SourceThe Guardian and Independent report the year-to-date drop is 42-43%, not 50%. The London Economic gives a precise 46% summer drop. Calling 46% 'halved' is a directional stretch — true in spirit but not arithmetically accurate.
SourceThe Guardian notes that since Burnham came to power on 20 July 2026, crossings have slightly increased year-on-year (1,962 in 2025 vs 2,000+ in 2026 for the same short window). This is context, not a direct contradiction of the overall summer figure.
SourceThe directional claim is supported: 2026 summer crossings are sharply down and YTD totals are the lowest in several years. However, the precise figures (46%, not 50%) and the specific 'since 2021' benchmark are slightly cherry-picked — official Home Office/Mahmood framing is 'lowest summer since 2019' / 'lowest since 2020'.
Saying crossings 'halved' when the verified drop is 46% is a small but meaningful exaggeration. The 'lowest since 2021' framing is consistent with June 2026 being the lowest June since 2021 and YTD being below 2023-2025, but the government itself uses a stronger benchmark (lowest since 2019/2020). The claim is directionally accurate and substantively supported by Home Office data, but imprecise on the numbers.
The claim has two parts. First, that summer small boat crossings have halved compared to last year: the actual drop over June-August 2026 was 46% (from ~13,733 to 7,416), not quite a halving, but close. Second, that year-to-date crossings are the lowest since 2021: the available data contradicts this, as cumulative 2026 figures (e.g., 14,526 by Aug 1; 16,391 year-to-date per TLE) are lower than the equivalent 2023 and 2024 totals, making 2026 the lowest since at least 2023, and the 'lowest summer since 2019/2020' framing is also accurate. The 'lowest since 2021' wording is roughly defensible but likely cherry-picked; the 'halved' framing rounds up 46% to 50%.