The claim
“Fentanyl trafficking into the United States has decreased by 30% due to border policies and tariffs.”
Donald Trump made the claim in a speech about tariffs, recorded in a Rev transcript dated 11 October 2026.
Our verdict
False
The claim is false. There is no evidence that fentanyl trafficking into the United States fell by 30% because of border policies or tariffs, and official data point the other way.
What we found
We found no support for the claim. The U.S. Sentencing Commission reports that fentanyl-related trafficking cases rose by 135% since the 2021 financial year, which is the opposite of a 30% fall. The Department of Homeland Security's Office of Inspector General found that fentanyl seizures by ICE Homeland Security Investigations dropped by 39% between the 2024 and 2025 financial years, but it attributed that drop to a shift in priorities towards immigration enforcement, not to the success of border policies or tariffs. The transcript of the speech itself does not contain the claim about a 30% decrease. Taken together, the evidence contradicts the claim and offers no support for the idea that border policies or tariffs caused any such fall.
The evidence
2 of 3 sources contradict the claim; none support it.
- Background
The transcript of the speech does not mention a 30% decrease in fentanyl trafficking. [1]
- Contradicts the claim
Fentanyl-related trafficking cases increased by 135% since the 2021 financial year, contradicting the claim of a 30% decrease. [2]
- Contradicts the claim
Fentanyl seizures by ICE Homeland Security Investigations fell by 39% between the 2024 and 2025 financial years, but the fall is attributed to reduced investigative effort, not to border policies or tariffs. [3]
What we could not confirm
- Seizure and case records do not measure the total volume of fentanyl trafficking, so the exact size of any change remains unknown.
- The evidence we reviewed runs only to 20 August 2026, so the period up to the date of the claim is not fully covered.
- No public evidence links border policies or tariffs to any fall in fentanyl trafficking.
How we checked
We reviewed the transcript of the speech, sentencing data on fentanyl trafficking cases, and an inspector general's report on fentanyl seizures and investigative effort. We reviewed 3 relevant sources.
Sources
- [1]www.rev.com · Donald Trump Supreme Court Tariff | Rev
- [2]U.S. Sentencing Commission · Quick Facts on Fentanyl Offenses
- [3]DHS Office of Inspector General · ICE Homeland Security Investigations Hindered in Countering Fentanyl Entering the United States · August 20, 2026
- [4]Photo: Daniel Torok / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain
Have evidence we missed?
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